Value Bets (04/11/16)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
What team should you bet to win the Stanley Cup?

The puck drops on the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Wednesday. With the first round set, which team(s) have value to win the Stanley Cup?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Stanley Cup and compare that to our projected odds that they win the Cup. For example, Nashville is listed at 25/1 to win the championship, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Predators they would need to win it all 3.8% (which is 1/(1+25)) of the time. We project Nashville to win it all 4.3% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at 25/1 odds.

Washington Capitals
Current Odds: 4/1, Chance needed in order to place a wager: 20.0%
Washington wins it all 21.3% of the time

The President's Trophy winners enter the postseason as the top seed in the Eastern Conference and the bookmakers (as well as our) pick to win it all. Alex Ovechkin just finished his third consecutive 50-goal season and captains a team that is top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The No. 1 team in our Power Rankings also finished fourth overall in both the power play and penalty kill making them a good bet at 4/1 odds.

Dallas Stars
Current Odds: 8/1, Chance needed in order to place a wager: 11.1%
Dallas wins it all 12.8% of the time

If you like offense, then you'll like betting the Stars to hoist the Cup. Dallas leads the NHL in scoring and is No. 1 in offensive efficiency. The Stars ­­are fourth in power play percentage and have allowed just six power play goals over their last 22 games.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Current Odds: 20/1, Chance needed in order to place a wager: 4.8%
Tampa Bay wins it all 8.4% of the time

You are getting long odds on last year's runners up because of all the injuries the Lightning are dealing with. None is bigger than losing their captain Steven Stamkos to blood clot surgery. Despite being banged up, Tampa Bay was fifth in the league in goals-against (fifth in defensive efficiency) and has a strong penalty kill. Then in the crease is Ben Bishop, who had the second best save percentage (.926) among goalies with at least 40 games played.

Other teams with value: San Jose Sharks 16/1, Nashville Predators 25/1 and New York Islanders 25/1

2016 Stanley Cup Odds

Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Chance
Capitals 4/1 20.0% 21.3%
Kings 7/1 12.5% 5.3%
Blackhawks 15/2 11.8% 7.7%
Ducks 8/1 11.1% 3.8%
Stars 8/1 11.1% 12.8%
Penguins 9/1 10.0% 7.1%
Blues 10/1 9.1% 4.7%
Rangers 16/1 5.9% 4.7%
Sharks 16/1 5.9% 6.9%
Panthers 20/1 4.8% 4.1%
Lightning 20/1 4.8% 8.4%
Predators 25/1 3.8% 4.3%
Islanders 25/1 3.8% 4.3%
Wild 28/1 3.4% 2.8%
Wings 33/1 2.9% 1.3%
Flyers 33/1 2.9% 0.6%