MLB Win Totals (02/22/16)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
What can win totals tell us about the 2016 MLB season?



Spring training is upon us, which means it is time to start talking win totals. Full squad workouts begin this week. As such, the Atlantis Sportsbook in Reno has posted season win totals for all 30 teams. What can the 2016 win totals tell us about the upcoming MLB season?

It is an even year, which means San Francisco will win the World Series. Or at least that is what happened in 2010, 2012 and 2014. The Giants have the biggest win total on the board at 90 games.

There are high hopes in Chicago as the Cubs (4/1 favorites) try to win their first World Series since 1908. The Cubbies won 97 games last year but only have a win total of 89 games, even after a big offseason that saw the North Siders add Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey.

Kansas City should be the class of the American League once again. The reigning champs will try to become the first team since the Yankees (1999-2001) to make three straight World Series appearances. KC has the highest win total in the AL at 87 games.

Boston and Detroit are two teams expected to bounce back after down years in 2015. The Red Sox (win total: 85.5 games) and Tigers (win total: 85 games) finished with losing records a year ago but the oddsmakers anticipate winning campaigns this summer.

St. Louis has the biggest disparity between 2015 performance and 2016 expectations. The Cardinals won 100 games last year, the most of any team. The last ten teams to win 100 or more games saw their win total the next season decrease by more than eight games on average. The Birds have the fourth highest win total (87.5 games).

Philadelphia won the fewest games a season ago but it is Atlanta that has the lowest win total in 2016. The Braves total is at 65 games; Philly's isn't much better at 66.5.

Note: PredictionMachine.com's 2016 MLB Preview will launch in early March.

2016 MLB Win Totals

Team 2015 Wins 2016 Win Totals
San Francisco 84 90
Chicago Cubs 97 89
NY Mets 90 88
St. Louis 100 87.5
Washington 83 87
LA Dodgers 92 87
Toronto 93 87
Kansas City 95 87
Pittsburgh 98 87
Texas 88 86
Boston 78 85.5
Houston 86 85.5
Detroit 74 85
NY Yankees 87 85
Arizona 79 84.5
Cleveland 81 84
Seattle 76 83
LA Angels 85 82.5
Miami 71 80.5
Chicago White Sox 76 80.5
Baltimore 81 80.5
Tampa Bay 80 78
Minnesota 83 77.5
Oakland 68 75.5
San Diego 74 74
Milwaukee 68 71.5
Cincinnati 64 71
Colorado 68 68.5
Philadelphia 63 66.5
Atlanta 67 65