WCC Tourney (03/05/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament at stake.

We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!

When: March 5-10

Where: Las Vegas

The automatic bid goes to: Gonzaga (53.3%)

Gonzaga has won all but one regular season title since the 2000-01 season and has advanced to every league tournament championship game since 1998. The Zags are good but they aren't invincible. Gonzaga just had its 41 game home win streak snapped.

And if they lose: BYU (24.8%)

The Cougars handed the Bulldogs their only loss in West Coast Conference play in the regular season finale. BYU is a balanced scoring team led by WCC leading scorer Tyler Haws (21.9 ppg). The Cougars are in the top ten in the country in offensive efficiency.

Bid Thief:

Saint Mary's: the Gaels blew an opportunity to upset the Zags earlier in the season after leading the Bulldogs for 36 minutes but did manage to split with BYU. Saint Mary's needs the automatic bid or it's off to the NIT.

Odds to win the West Coast Conference Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

Seed Team Semifinals Title Game Champ.
1 Gonzaga 87.5 75.1 53.3
8/9 San Francisco/Pacific 12.5 5.3 1.9
4 Pepperdine 46.8 9.3 2.8
5 San Diego 53.2 10.4 3.2
3 Saint Mary's 67.5 30.7 10.5
6 Portland 32.5 11.3 2.6
2 BYU 80.9 52.7 24.8
7/10 Santa Clara/Loyola-Mary. 19.1 5.4 0.9