Summit Tourney (03/06/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament at stake.

We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!

When: March 7-10

Where: Sioux Falls, S.D.

The automatic bid goes to: South Dakota State (31.6%)

The Jackrabbits earned a share of the conference regular season championship with a 12-4 Summit League record. South Dakota State is second in the league in scoring (72.9 ppg) and third in defensive scoring allowing 64.6 ppg. The Jackrabbits are the conference's clear best team, a fringe top 100 squad in our Power Rankings.

And if they lose: North Dakota State (16.0%)

The Bison are a dangerous team led by conference Player of the Year Lawrence Alexander. North Dakota State can also bring the defense, limiting opponents to a league best 62.3 ppg.

Bid Thief:

Oral Roberts: the Golden Eagles finished the regular season by knocking off second seed North Dakota State. Oral Roberts can put up points, third in the league in scoring, led by the Summit League's second leading scorer Obi Emegano (18.1 ppg).

Odds to win the Summit League Conference Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

Seed Team Semifinals Title Game Champ.
1 SD St. 83.2 50.2 31.6
8 W. Illinois 16.9 3.7 1.0
4 IPFW 55.6 27.8 14.1
5 South Dakota 44.5 18.4 8.7
3 Oral Roberts 63.6 30.0 14.1
6 IUPUI 36.4 10.8 3.4
2 ND St. 54.8 33.8 16.0
7 Denver 45.3 25.6 11.3