Pac-12 Tourney (03/09/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. In the last week before Selection Sunday, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.

We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now! has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 97-70 (58% ATS and O/U), through 2014. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.

When: March 11-14

Where: Las Vegas, NV

The automatic bid goes to: Arizona (59.8%)

Arizona has won eight games in a row en route to securing the Wildcats second straight Pac-12 regular season championship. If Arizona can win the Pac-12 Conference Tournament the Wildcats could be a No. 1 seed when March Madness tips off.

And if they lose: Utah (21.8%)

Utah is a sleeper Final Four team. The Utes are No. 6 in our updated Power Rankings, one of just seven teams that are top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Bid Thief:

UCLA: the Bruins are an average team and have been sitting on the bubble all season. UCLA is currently part of Joe Lunardi's ‘Next Four Out', to secure an NCAA Tournament invite the Bruins will need to win a couple games and get lucky in Las Vegas.

Odds to win the Pac-12 Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

Seed Team Quarterfinals Semifinals Title Game Champ.
1 Arizona 100.0 90.7 78.0 59.8
3 Utah 100.0 70.8 52.5 21.8
2 Oregon 100.0 61.5 22.6 5.7
4 UCLA 100.0 57.9 12.2 4.1
6 Stanford 66.6 22.1 12.3 3.6
5 Arizona St. 67.6 32.2 5.5 1.8
10 Colorado 49.2 19.2 5.2 1.1
7 Oregon St. 50.8 19.3 4.6 0.8
11 Washington 33.4 7.1 2.8 0.5
8 California 56.0 5.1 1.7 0.4
9 Washington St. 44.0 4.2 1.1 0.2
12 USC 32.4 9.9 1.5 0.2