NHL Playoff Probabilities (03/30/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NHL Playoff Probabilities – Odds to win the Stanley Cup.



With 13 days remaining in the regular season, there are 12 postseason spots up for grabs in the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs. A lot will be determined over the final weeks of the regular season.

As teams make a playoff push, what could the Stanley Cup Playoffs look like?

To set up our NHL Playoffs we use our rest of season projections. If the playoffs started today, Calgary would be in the postseason. However, in our simulations, according to our rest of season projections, the Flames are knocked out of the playoffs by the Los Angeles Kings.

Top storylines:

After reaching the Cup finals a year ago and coming up short, the Rangers are the most likely team to win the Stanley Cup. The Blueshirts are an incredibly balanced team ranking in the top three in offensive and defensive efficiency.

People are sleeping on Tampa Bay. Bookmaker Bovada.lv gives the Bolts the eighth best odds (12/1) to capture the Cup. The Lightning earned wins over playoff teams Montreal, Detroit and Boston in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay is one of just three teams with double-digit odds to win the Cup.

The defending champs are a likely wild card team in the West. Los Angeles would be a longshot to repeat with just a 3.4% chance to win it all. Of course the Kings were unlikely champions before the playoffs started last season too.

The best of the rest: Ottawa has gone 15-3-2 in the last month. The Senators are tenth in our Power Rankings but miss out on the playoffs.

2015 NHL Playoff Probabilities

Region Seed Team First Round Second Round Stanley Cup Finals Champ.
Eastern 1 NYR 72.8% 49.3% 29.7% 18.9%
Eastern 4 Bos 27.2% 10.7% 3.5% 1.3%
Eastern 2 Pit 48.6% 18.3% 7.9% 3.6%
Eastern 3 NYI 51.4% 21.7% 10.2% 5.0%
Region Seed Team First Round Second Round Stanley Cup Finals Champ.
Eastern 1 Mon 51.5% 25.5% 11.8% 5.8%
Eastern 4 Was 48.5% 21.7% 9.8% 5.0%
Eastern 2 TB 63.2% 35.8% 19.5% 11.6%
Eastern 3 Det 36.8% 17.0% 7.5% 3.6%
Region Seed Team First Round Second Round Stanley Cup Finals Champ.
Western 1 Anh 52.7% 27.6% 11.8% 4.9%
Western 4 Wpg 47.3% 22.0% 8.0% 3.1%
Western 2 Van 50.9% 25.2% 9.2% 3.4%
Western 3 LA 49.1% 25.2% 9.6% 3.6%
Region Seed Team First Round Second Round Stanley Cup Finals Champ.
Western 1 Nsh 51.8% 26.5% 16.3% 8.1%
Western 4 Min 48.2% 22.1% 13.0% 5.9%
Western 2 StL 60.8% 32.9% 21.8% 11.4%
Western 3 Chi 39.2% 18.4% 10.3% 4.7%