2015 NHL Playoff Odds (05/14/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Updated 2015 Stanley Cup Playoff odds.

The conference finals are set and the New York Rangers (38.2%) are still the most likely Stanley Cup Champion, up from 20.4% before the playoffs started. The Rangers most likely opponent in the Finals is the Chicago Blackhawks.

Chicago may be more likely to reach the Stanley Cup but the Tampa Bay Lightning are the second most likely champion (23.3%). The Anaheim Ducks win it all 17.6% of the time.

Expect each series to go long. There is a 32.6% chance that the Rangers/Lightning play a Game 7 and a 31.0% chance that the Blackhawks/Ducks series goes the distance. New York is the most likely team to sweep but there is just a 7.3% chance that the Rangers win the first four games.

The Eastern Conference wins 61.5% of all simulated playoffs. The most likely Finals, Rangers/Blackhawks, occurs 30.2% of the time. The least likely Final, Ducks/Lightning, occurs 20.1% of the time.

NHL Playoff Odds (based on 2015 NHL Playoffs simulated 50,000 times):

Region Team Stanley Cup Champ.
Eastern New York Rangers 57.7 38.2
Eastern Tampa Bay Lightning 42.3 23.3
Western Anaheim Ducks 47.6 17.6
Western Chicago Blackhawks 52.4 20.9

Conference Finals Series Wins By Game

Region Team In 4 In 5 In 6 In 7
Eastern New York Rangers 7.3 11.0 19.9 19.4
Eastern Tampa Bay Lightning 4.5 12.7 12.0 13.2
Western Anaheim Ducks 5.8 9.3 15.4 17.1
Western Chicago Blackhawks 6.7 17.0 14.8 13.9