NFL Trends Week 9 (11/04/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Week 9 – Situational Trends

All-time, teams that start 7-0 and are favorites of a touchdown or more in the next game went 3-8 against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-14) vs. Redskins and Bengals (-10) vs. Browns.

Only four teams in NFL history have been underdogs in their next game after starting the season 7-0. Those teams went 1-3 straight-up and 2-2 against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Panthers (+2.5) vs. Packers.

Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 franchises, teams that have lost six games in a row and are underdogs of a touchdown or more went 13-21 against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Titans (+8) @ Saints.

NFL Trends – Week 9
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)



Teams Spread Trend
ATL -7 @ SF Teams are 16-11 against-the-spread when they face Blaine Gabbert.
BUF -3 vs. MIA The Bills are 6-4 ATS in their last ten games as home favorites against the Dolphins.
CAR +2.5 vs. GB In his career, Cam Newton as a home underdog is 2-11 straight-up and 5-8 against-the-spread.
CHI +4 @ SD Jay Cutler is 5-2 ATS in his career on Monday Night Football - all as an underdog.
CIN -10 vs. CLE The Bengals are 2-8 against-the-spread in the last ten games as favorites of 10 or more points.
CLE +10 @ CIN All-time, underdogs of 10 or more points on Thursday Night Football are 10-19 (35%) ATS.
DAL +2.5 vs. PHI All-time, the Cowboys as a home underdog against NFC East rivals are 17-11-1 ATS.
DEN -5 @ IND Chicken parm you taste so good. Peyton Manning has been favored in 23 of 28 road games with the Broncos and is 15-8 ATS in those contests.
GB -2.5 @ CAR Following a loss and as a road favorite, Aaron Rodgers is 4-1 against-the-spread.
IND +5 vs. DEN Andrew Luck is 6-1 straight-up and 7-0 ATS as a home underdog.
JAX +2.5 @ NYJ The Jags have lost 12 straight as road underdogs and are 5-7 ATS in those games.
MIA +3 @ BUF All-time, with extra rest following a Thursday night game and as an underdog, the Dolphins are 4-2 ATS.
MIN -2.5 vs. STL The last ten times the Vikings have won three games in a row, Minnesota covered in nine of the next ten games.
NE -14 vs. WAS Tom Brady has never lost a game as a two touchdown favorite but he is just 7-11 against-the-spread in those games.
NO -8 vs. TEN Drew Brees has covered six straight games as a favorite of a touchdown or more following three straight wins.
NYG -2.5 @ TB Eli Manning as a road favorite is 11-5-1 against-the-spread in his career.
NYJ -2.5 vs. JAX All-time, following two straight losses and as home favorites the Jets are 8-13-1 against-the-spread.
OAK +4.5 @ PIT All-time, the Raiders as road underdogs in Pittsburgh are 4-2 against-the-spread.
PHI -2.5 @ DAL In the Chip Kelly era, the Eagles as road favorites are 2-5 ATS.
PIT -4.5 vs. OAK Big Ben as a home favorite in November is 5-11 against-the-spread.
SD -4 vs. CHI Philip Rivers at home on Monday Night Football is 5-3 against-the-spread.
SF +7 vs. ATL The 49ers are benching Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert is 5-22 straight-up as a starter in his career.
STL +2.5 @ MIN The last ten underdogs in Minnesota went 6-3-1 against-the-spread.
TB +2.5 vs. NYG All-time, the Buccaneers at home in November are 39-28-3 ATS.
TEN +8 @ NO Since 2000, teams that fired their coach during the season are 7-19 straight-up and 9-17 against-the-spread.
WAS +14 @ NE All-time, road underdogs of 14 or more points in Foxborough are 10-4 against-the-spread.

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