NFL Trends Week 16 (12/23/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Week 16 – Situational Trends

Seattle has won five in a row and clinched a playoff berth for a fourth straight year. Russell Wilson became the first quarterback to throw for three or more touchdowns in a five game span without an interception. Everything is clicking for the Seahawks, but all-time teams that have won five games in a row and are favored by double-digits the next week went 22-35-1 against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Seahawks (-13.5) vs. Rams.

Carolina is a perfect 14-0 and has won 18 straight regular season games, the third longest streak in NFL history. The Panthers have gone 13-5 against-the-spread during the winning streak. Can Cam Newton keep his team winning and covering?

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Panthers (-7) at Falcons.

All-time, home underdogs in Week 16 have covered the spread 57% of the time (89-66-6).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (+7) vs. Panthers, Ravens (+10) vs. Steelers and Jets (+3) vs. Patriots.

NFL Trends – Week 16
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)



Teams Spread Trend
ATL +7 vs. CAR The Falcons have lost 11 straight as home dogs of a touchdown or more. Atlanta went 6-5 against-the-spread in those games.
AZ -4.5 vs. GB The last ten home favorites facing the Packers went 8-2 against-the-spread.
BAL +10 vs. PIT Baltimore has only been a home underdog of greater than a touchdown five times. The Ravens are 2-1-2 ATS in those games.
BUF -6 vs. DAL The last ten favorites against the Cowboys went 8-2 against-the-spread.
CAR -7 @ ATL All-time, in a divisional matchup, the NFC South team that is favored on the road by a touchdown is 10-0 straight-up (just 4-6 ATS).
CHI +3 @ TB In their last ten games as road underdogs against the NFC South, the Bears are 3-6-1 ATS.
CIN +3.5 @ DEN All-time, the Bengals in Mile High are 0-9 straight-up and 4-5 ATS.
CLE +12.5 @ KC In the last 10 years, the Browns have been double-digit road dogs 26 times and are 1-25 straight-up in those games (13-13 ATS).
DAL +6 @ BUF Kellen Moore will start for Dallas in Week 16. In the last three years the Cowboys without Tony Romo are 2-11 straight-up and 3-10 ATS.
DEN -3.5 vs. CIN Since December of last year, the Broncos as home favorites are just 2-5 against-the-spread.
DET -8.5 vs. SF In his career, Matthew Stafford as a touchdown or greater favorite is 8-3 straight-up and 4-7 ATS.
GB +4.5 @ AZ Road underdogs against a Carson Palmer led Cardinals team are 4-9-1 against-the-spread.
HOU +4.5 @ TEN The Texans are 7-3 straight-up and 8-2 against-the-spread in their last ten games against the Titans.
IND +1 @ MIA Indy has lost eight straight road games against AFC East teams and went 2-6 against-the-spread in those games.
JAX +3.5 @ NO In the last five years, the Jags as road underdogs are 6-32 straight-up and 19-19 ATS.
KC -12.5 vs. CLE All-time, the Chiefs as touchdown favorites at home in December are 16-3 straight-up and 10-9 against-the-spread.
MIA -1 vs. IND The Dolphins are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten home games.
MIN -5.5 vs. NYG Teddy Bridgewater as a home favorite has never lost a game (8-0) and 6-1-1 against-the-spread.
NE -3 @ NYJ This is the 16 straight game where the Patriots have been favored over the Jets. New England went 4-10-1 ATS in the previous 15 games.
NO -3.5 vs. JAX In their last ten home games, the Saints are 3-7 straight-up and 2-7-1 against-the-spread.
NYG +5.5 @ MIN The Giants are 6-3-1 against-the-spread in their last ten road games.
NYJ +3 vs. NE In the last 20 games as home dogs against AFC East teams, the Jets are 14-6 against-the-spread.
OAK -5 vs. SD Since 1990, the Raiders as home favorites against the Chargers are 3-11 against-the-spread.
PHI -3 vs. WAS In the last 20 games against the NFC East, the Eagles are 7-12-1 against-the-spread.
PIT -10 @ BAL Ben Roethlisberger has been a double-digit road favorite six times in his career and failed to cover in each game.
SD +5 @ OAK In his last ten games against Oakland, Philip Rivers is 7-3 straight-up but 3-7 against-the-spread.
SEA -13.5 vs. STL In his career, Russell Wilson as a home favorite of a touchdown or greater against the NFC West is 6-1 straight-up and 4-2-1 ATS.
SF +8.5 @ DET In the last ten games as home underdogs the 49ers are 6-3-1 against-the-spread
STL +13.5 @ SEA The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games a double-digit underdogs in divisional games.
TB -3 vs. CHI The Bucs are 3-7 against-the-spread in their last ten games at home against NFC North opponents.
TEN -4.5 vs. HOU In the last 10 games against divisional foes, the Titans are 2-8 against-the-spread.
WAS +3 @ PHI Washington is 7-3 against-the-spread in their last ten games in Philly and have won five of those game straight-up.

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