NFL Trends Week 11 (11/17/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Week 11 – Situational Trends

The Packers have lost three straight games with Aaron Rodgers for the first time since he became the full time starter in Green Bay. The last time (2008) the Cheeseheads were on a skid this long, they lost their next game and didn't cover.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Packers (Pick'em) @ Vikings.

All-time, teams that have lost seven games in a row are 63-48-2 (57%) against-the-spread in their next game.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys (Pick'em) @ Dolphins.

All-time, teams that started 9-0 went 12-3 straight-up and 11-4 against-the-spread in their next game.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-7) vs. Bills and Panthers (-7) vs. Redskins.

NFL Trends – Week 11
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)



Teams Spread Trend
ATL -6 vs. IND Since the Falcons last playoff run (2012), Atlanta is 2-9-1 against-the-spread as a home favorite.
AZ -4 vs. CIN When Carson Palmer starts, the Cardinals as home favorites are 9-2-1 against-the-spread.
BAL -2 vs. STL The Ravens are 1-8-1 against-the-spread in the team's last ten games as favorites.
BUF +7 @ NE Rex Ryan is 8-4-1 against-the-spread vs. Tom Brady and the Patriots.
CAR -7 vs. WAS The Panthers have been favored in eight games this year and are 6-2 against-the-spread in those games.
CHI +1 vs. DEN In the last five years, the Bears are 3-10 against-the-spread as home underdogs.
CIN +4 @ AZ The last ten teams to lose on Monday Night Football and then be road underdogs in the next game went 7-3 ATS.
DAL Pick'em @ MIA The Cowboys have lost nine straight games when Tony Romo doesn't start. Romo is expected to be under center Sunday.
DEN -1 @ CHI Brock Osweiler will start Sunday for Denver. Peyton Manning's backups have gone 2-14 straight-up and 6-10 ATS when starting.
DET +1.5 vs. OAK In the last five years, the Lions as home underdogs are 1-6-1 against-the-spread.
GB Pick'em @ MIN The Packers have been favored in 12 straight games against the Vikings, the last time Green Bay wasn't (2009) they lost and didn't cover.
HOU +2.5 vs. NYJ On Sunday, T.J. Yates might make his first NFL start since 2011, he is 5-2 against-the-spread as a starter in his career.
IND +6 @ ATL Matt Hasselbeck is 8-11-1 against-the-spread as a starter in his last twenty games as underdog.
JAX -3 vs. TEN The Jags have only been favored once in the team's last 50 games (at home vs. Titans 2014), they won and covered that game.
KC -3 @ SD The last ten times the Chiefs have won three games in a row and then were road favorites in the next game, KC went 3-6-1 ATS.
MIA Pick'em vs. DAL Home teams facing Tony Romo are 28-38-1 (42%) against-the-spread.
MIN Pick'em vs. GB All-time, when the Vikings have won five games in a row, Minnesota has gone 4-7-1 ATS in their next game.
NE -7 vs. BUF Tom Brady has never lost at home as a touchdown favorite against the Bills, he is a perfect 10-0 straight-up.
NYJ -2.5 @ HOU The Jets are just 1-4 against-the-spread in their last five games following an appearance on Thursday Night Football.
OAK -1.5 @ DET The Raiders have only been favored on the road twice since 2012, they failed to cover both times.
PHI -5.5 vs. TB The Eagles have lost three of their last five games as home favorites of more than a field goal.
SD +3 vs. KC Philip Rivers has only lost five games in a row once, the last time this happened (2011) the Chargers lost their next game and didn't cover.
SEA -12.5 vs. SF Seattle is 13-1 straight-up as double-digit favorites with Russell Wilson and have covered three straight.
SF +12.5 @ SEA The 49ers are 1-3-1 against-the-spread since 2007 as double-digit road dogs.
STL +2 @ BAL In ten career stars, Case Keenum is 3-6-1 against-the-spread.
TB +5.5 @ PHI The Bucs are 7-3 against-the-spread in their last ten road games.
TEN +3 @ JAX All-time, the Titans are 11-3-1 against-the-spread when they play on Thursday night.
WAS +7 @ CAR Kirk Cousins has won six games in his career as a starter, each time he has lost the next game.

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