NFL Trends Week 1 (09/09/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
powered by Trend Machine




There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Week 1 – Situational Trends

Is there a Super Bowl hangover? In the last ten years, the runner-up in the Super Bowl has gone 2-7-1 against-the-spread in Week 1.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Seahawks (-3.5) @ Rams.

Blindly betting home dogs used to be profitable but since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs are 541-544-27 (49%) against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (+3) vs. Eagles, Bills (+2.5) vs. Colts, Bears (+5) vs. Packers, Jaguars (+3) vs. Panthers, Raiders (+3) vs. Bengals, 49ers (+2.5) vs. Vikings, Rams (+3.5) vs. Seahawks and Redskins (+3.5) vs. Dolphins.

Last year, in games with totals of great than 50 points, the under went 46-36 (57%).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons vs. Eagles (54.5) and Cowboys vs. Giants (51).



NFL Trends – Week 1

Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
ATL +3 vs. PHI Matt Ryan as a home dog is 9-5-1 (64% ATS).
AZ -2.5 vs. NO When healthy, Carson Palmer has led Arizona to a 16-5-1 (76%) record against-the-spread.
BAL +5 @ DEN Against the Peyton Manning led Broncos, road dogs of a touchdown or less are 3-7-2 against-the-spread in Mile High.
BUF +2.5 vs. IND Rex Ryan, the Bills new Head Coach, is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog.
CAR -3 @ JAX Cam Newton has won back-to-back NFC South titles but he is just 3-5-1 ATS as a road favorite in his career.
CHI +5 vs. GB All-time, the Bears as home dogs to the Packers are 4-13 straight-up and 6-11 (35%) against-the-spread.
CIN -3 @ OAK Cincinnati has failed to cover in seven straight games as road favorites.
CLE +3 @ NYJ In the last two years, in games started, Josh McCown is 3-13 straight-up and 6-10 against-the-spread.
DAL -5.5 vs. NYG Tony Romo is 7-3 against-the-spread in season openers.
DEN -5 vs. BAL Demaryius Thomas has 100 yards or a TD in 26 of Denver's last 30 games. The Broncos are 16-13-1 (55% ATS) in those games.
DET +3 @ SD Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has started every game, Detroit is 4-14 straight-up and 7-11 (39%) against-the-spread as road dogs.
GB -5 @ CHI Since becoming the starter in 2008, Aaron Rodgers when facing the Bears is 12-3 (80%) against-the-spread.
HOU -2 vs. KC Since 2011, when Houston drafted JJ Watt, the Texans are 23-18-1 (56%) against-the-spread as a favorite.
IND -2.5 @ BUF Andrew Luck as a road favorite is 8-3-1 (73%) against-the-spread.
JAX +3 vs. CAR In the last five years, the Jaguars have been home dogs in 31 out of 40 games. Jacksonville is 9-22 (29%) ATS in those games.
KC +2 @ HOU In two seasons in Kansas City, Alex Smith is 13-4 (77%) against-the-spread away from the friendly confines of Arrowhead.
MIA -3.5 @ WAS Ryan Tannehill as a road favorite is 2-5 against-the-spread and has a losing record straight-up.
MIN -2.5 @ SF The Viking have only been a road favorite twice since 2011, Minnesota is 0-2 against-the-spread in those games.
NE -3.5 vs. PIT With Tom Brady, New England is 135-97-6 (58%) ATS. Without him, all-time, the Patriots are 192-203-10 (49%) ATS.
NO +2.5 @ AZ In the last two years, once Carson Palmer came to the desert, road dogs in Arizona are 1-8-1 against-the-spread.
NYG +5.5 @ DAL All-time, the Giants as road dogs in Dallas are 8-19 straight-up and 11-16 against-the-spread.
NYJ -3 vs. CLE Ryan Fitzpatrick almost had as many wins against-the-spread (6 in 12 starts) as the Jets (7 wins ATS) did in a full season.
OAK +3 vs. CIN Jack Del Rio, the Raiders new head coach, is 67-73-2 against-the-spread all-time.
PHI -3 @ ATL All-time, Sam Bradford is 24-24-1 ATS. In 49 career games he has only been a road favorite once and did not cover.
PIT +3.5 @ NE In his career, Ben Roethlisberger is 8-3 straight-up but 5-6 against-the-spread in Week 1.
SD -3 vs. DET In Philip Rivers career, the Chargers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 32-26-1 (55%) against-the-spread.
SEA -3.5 @ STL Russell Wilson as a favorite of a field goal or more on the road is 10-4 straight-up and 7-6-1 against-the-spread.
SF +2.5 vs. MIN In Colin Kaepernick's career, the 49ers have never been a home underdog. Until now.
STL +3.5 vs. SEA All-time in Week 1, the Rams are 12-24-1 (33%) against-the-spread and are just 2-8 ATS in the last ten seasons.
TB -3 vs. TEN The last ten quarterbacks taken with the first overall pick are 1-8-1 against-the-spread in their first career start.
TEN +3 @ TB The Titans went 2-14 straight-up last year and 4-12 against-the-spread. Of course that was without the No. 2 pick Marcus Mariota.
WAS +3.5 vs. MIA As a starter, Kirk Cousins is 2-7 straight-up but 5-4 against-the-spread