NFL Trends Championship (01/14/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
­­NFL Conference Championship Weekend betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

NFL Conference Championship Weekend – Situational Trends

All-time, in Conference Championship Weekend, underdogs of 7 or more points are 13-17 (43% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Colts (+7) @ Patriots and Packers (+7.5) @ Seahawks.

All-time, home favorites in Conference Championship Weekend are 34-25 (58% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-7) vs. Colts and Seahawks (-7.5) vs. Packers.

Additional Notes

Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, there have been 30 conference championship games that were rematches from the regular season. In those games, the winner of the last regular season meeting (there were inter-division rematches where the teams had played each other twice in the regular season) went 18-12 straight-up in the conference championship game.

In those same games, when a team won the regular season matchup and then was favored by a touchdown or more in the conference championship game, the favorite went 8-3 (73% ATS).

Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, in conference championship games featuring rematches from the regular season, the favorite went 17-13 (57% ATS).

Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, 31 of 50 conference championship games have been decided by more than seven points.

Green Bay and Seattle have met in the playoffs two previous times. The Packers were favored by 7.5 points in both contests. Green Bay won both games but only covered in one.

Tom Brady is facing the Indianapolis Colts for the fifth time in the playoffs. The Patriots have won three of the previous four postseason meetings and are 3-1 ATS in those games.

NFL Trends – Conference Championship Weekend
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
GB +7.5 @ SEA Outside a 4-0 ATS run in route to the 2011 Super Bowl Championship, the Packers with Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs are 1-5 (17% ATS).
IND +7 @ NE All-time, teams that are dogs of seven or more points against Tom Brady in the playoffs are 9-5 (64% ATS).
NE -7 vs. IND In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots have failed to cover in five straight conference championship games, and are 1-3 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more in the AFC title game.
SEA -7.5 vs. GB In the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 (100% ATS) in the playoffs.