Lottery Odds

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
2015 NBA Draft Lottery – What are the odds?

The 2015 NBA Draft Lottery will be held tonight in New York City. The Lottery, televised on ESPN at 8:30 PM ET, will determine the selection order of the first 14 picks in the upcoming draft.

The Minnesota Timberwolves finished with the worst record in the league and will have a 25 percent chance to win the first overall pick.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the draft lottery and the only team with a winning record. OKC has a 0.5 percent or 1-in-200 chance to land the top pick.

Do you like drama? This year's draft could determine the fate of the Los Angeles Lakers for years to come. In 2012, the Lakers sent a protected first-round pick to Phoenix in the trade for Steve Nash. The Suns then traded that pick to Philadelphia at this year's trade deadline. If the Lakers pick falls outside the top five then the Sixers get it. There is a 17.2 percent probability that this will occur.

The NBA Draft matters and therefore so does the Lottery. Six of the eight teams that advanced to the conference semifinals this season featured a No. 1 overall pick (LeBron James, Andrew Bogut, Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin, John Wall and Derrick Rose). Plus the top seven finishers in this year's MVP voting were all once lottery picks.

2015 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Team Record Odds To Win
Minnesota Timberwolves 16-66 25.0%
New York Knicks 17-65 19.9%
Philadelphia Sixers 18-64 15.6%
Los Angeles Lakers 21-61 11.9%
Orlando Magic 25-57 8.8%
Sacramento Kings 29-53 6.3%
Denver Nuggets 30-52 4.3%
Detroit Pistons 32-50 2.8%
Charlotte Hornets 33-49 1.7%
Miami Heat 37-45 1.1%
Indiana Pacers 38-44 0.8%
Utah Jazz 38-44 0.7%
Phoenix Suns 39-43 0.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder 45-37 0.5%