World Series Value (10/05/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
World Series value bets. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



The 162-game marathon is over. MLB's second season, the playoffs, begins Tuesday. A day from the first pitch of the postseason, we look for value in the odds to win the World Series. We utilize our World Series odds to find the likelihood of each team winning the championship.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the World Series and compare that to our projected odds that they lift the Commissioner's Trophy. For example, Toronto is the favorite at 3/1, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Blue Jays they would need to win it all 25.0% (which is 1/(3+1)) of the time. We project Toronto to win the World Series 11.8% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 3/1 odds.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Current odds: 6/1, Chance needed in order to place a wagers: 14.3%
Dodgers wins the World Series 24.1% of the time

The Dodgers have arguably the best one-two pitching punch in baseball. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are both Cy Young candidates and the lineup is the second best in the big leagues. Plus, the Dodgers are our pick to win the World Series.

Chicago Cubs (10/1)
Current odds: 10/1, Chance needed in order to place a wagers: 9.1%
Cubs wins the World Series 11.3% of the time

The Cubbies aren't your typical wild card team. By our Power Rankings, Chicago is the second best team in baseball – top three in hitting and pitching efficiency. If the Cubs get by the Pirates in the one-game playoff, the Loveable Losers would become the second most likely champion.

Team Odds Proj. Chance Proj. Chance Needed
Toronto Blue Jays 3/1 11.8% 25.0%
Kansas City Royals 5/1 10.8% 16.7%
St. Louis Cardinals 5/1 10.8% 16.7%
Los Angeles Dodgers 6/1 24.1% 14.3%
New York Mets 7/1 9.2% 12.5%
Chicago Cubs 10/1 11.3% 9.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates 11/1 5.9% 8.3%
Texas Rangers 12/1 6.8% 7.7%
Houston Astros 14/1 6.0% 6.7%
New York Yankees 14/1 3.4% 6.7%