Playoff Probabilities (09/29/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
2015 Playoff Probabilities and World Series Odds.



There is only one week left in the MLB regular season. Six teams have clinched a playoff spot but not everything is settled. On the cusp on the postseason, here is what's at stake.

The Chicago Cubs clinched their first playoff berth since 2008. The Cubbies have the best record in the NL since the All-Star break. Their reward for an excellent season - a one-game playoff, likely on the road against the Pirates.

Speaking of the Buccos, Pittsburgh has a chance to catch the Cardinals for the NL Central crown (though they lost in the 9th last night to St. Louis). The Pirates only have an 11 percent chance of winning the division and would be slight underdogs in a one-game playoff against the Cubs.

Clinching hasn't come easy for the Yankees but New York is a lock for the postseason with a 3.5 game lead for the first wild card. The Bronx Bombers are longshots to win the World Series (4.1 percent).

The Astros, Angels, Twins and Indians are all battling for the second wild card spot in the American League. Houston only has a half game lead but the surprise team of the season is the most likely of the bunch (62.2 percent chance) to make the playoffs.

The Dodgers still haven't secured a playoff berth but Los Angeles is the most likely World Series champion (17.8 percent). The Cardinals, despite losing Carlos Martinez last week and potentially being without Yadier Molina, are the second most likely champions (14.0 percent).

The most likely World Series, Dodgers vs. Blue Jays, only occurs 9.2 percent of the time.

There is a 6 percent chance of an I-70 Series (Cardinals vs. Royals) and a 2 percent chance of another Subway Series (Yankees vs. Mets).

AL East

Team Win Division
Toronto Blue Jays 98.3%
New York Yankees 1.7%

AL West

Team Win Division
Texas Rangers 90.6%
Houston Astros 4.1%
Los Angeles Angels 5.3%

NL Central

Team Win Division
St. Louis Cardinals 88.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates 11.7%

NL West

Team Win Division
Los Angeles Dodgers 99.8%
San Francisco Giants 0.2%

2015 World Series Odds

Team Playoffs% World Series%
Los Angeles Dodgers 99.8 17.8
St. Louis Cardinals 100.0 14.0
Toronto Blue Jays 100.0 13.1
New York Mets 100.0 12.9
Kansas City Royals 100.0 10.2
Chicago Cubs 100.0 8.8
Texas Rangers 96.3 7.0
Pittsburgh Pirates 100.0 5.8
Houston Astros 62.2 4.7
New York Yankees 100.0 4.1
Los Angeles Angels 26.4 1.3
Minnesota Twins 13.4 0.2
Cleveland Indians 1.7 0.1
San Francisco Giants 0.2 0.0