Colonial Tourney (03/06/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament at stake.

We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!

When: March 6-9

Where: Baltimore, MD

The automatic bid goes to: Northeastern (23.7%)

The Huskies might be the three seed but they are the early favorites to win the CAA Tournament. Northeastern finished with the best regular season record (20-11) but lost on tiebreakers in seeding. Northeastern won three of its last four games and may be peaking at the right time to capture the conference's automatic bid.

And if they lose: William and Mary (19.8%)

The CAA Tournament is wide open. The Tribe holds a 5-1 record in the regular season against the other top four seeds in the tournament. William and Mary is led by the conference's leading scorer Marcus Thornton (19.4 ppg).

Bid Thief:

Hofstra: the Pride led the league in scoring (78.1 ppg) and is a top 50 team in offensive efficiency.

Odds to win the Colonial Conference Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

Seed Team Semifinals Title Game Champ.
1 W&M 66.8 35.2 19.8
8/9 Elon/Towson 33.3 11.6 4.5
4 James Mad 41.7 20.1 9.1
5 Hofstra 58.3 33.1 19.4
3 Northeastern 69.6 43.8 23.7
6 Delaware 30.5 12.9 4.5
2 UNC-Wilmington 57.1 27.4 13.3
7/10 Drexel/Charleston 42.9 16.0 6.0