Cinderellas/Sleepers/Busts (03/16/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
2015 NCAA Tournament - Cinderellas, Sleepers, Busts and more.



PredictionMachine.com ran 50,000 simulations of the NCAA tournament bracket Sunday night. Utilizing our Bracket Analysis, here are teams to watch and avoid in the Big Dance.

CINDERELLAS

Double-digit seeds with the best chance to reach the Sweet 16:

Texas, the Midwest's No. 11 seed, has a 22% chance of reaching the Sweet 16. Don't be fooled by the Longhorns losing record in Big 12 play. Texas has played a top ten schedule and ranks inside the top 25 of our Power Rankings.

Other teams with similar chances include #12 Buffalo (18% chance to make the Sweet 16), #10 Davidson (16%) and #12 Stephen F. Austin (16%).

SLEEPERS

Teams seeded fifth or worse with the best chance to reach the Final Four:

The South's No. 5 seed Utah is as balanced as any team in the country. The Utes are one of just eight teams that rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Utah has a 7% chance of making a run to Indianapolis, the 11th best Final Four odds.

Other teams seeded fifth or worse with the best chances of making the Final Four include #5 UNI (5% to reach the Final Four), #7 Michigan State (5%), #6 SMU (2%) and #10 Davidson 1.8%).

BUSTS

Teams seeded fourth or better with the worst chance of reaching the Elite Eight:

Any team in the Midwest could complain about bad seeding with Kentucky in the region. Maryland, a No. 4 seed, will have to go through the Wildcats in order to reach the Elite Eight. The probability of this occurring is low, the Terps have a 1% chance of advancing past the Sweet 16.

Additional teams like Maryland include #4 Georgetown (4% to reach the Elite Eight), #4 Louisville (8%), #3 Baylor (11%), #4 UNC (5%) and #2 Kansas (24%).

FIRST 1 SEED OUT

The most likely Final Four consist of all No. 1 seeds, but there is only a 10.3% chance this occurs. All four #1 Seeds are at least 47% likely to make the Final Four. Duke is the weakest at just 47%, though Villanova is the least likely one seed to win its first game (96%) and make the Sweet 16 (86%)

BIGGEST BEEF

Best at-large teams not in the tournament: UConn (#44 in Final Power Rankings), Stanford (#45), Temple (#47) and Texas A&M (#50) (Power Rankings have Colorado State #70 and Tulsa #72).

LEAST DESERVING

Worst at-large teams included in tournament: Purdue (#51 in Final Power Rankings), Cincinnati (#49), Indiana (#46) and St. John's (#43) (Power Rankings have UCLA #40).

BEST REGION

You could have predicted this before the bracket was announced. Kentucky has been locked into the tournament's top overall seed and the Midwest region for a while now. With the Wildcats dominating our simulations the Midwest has 46.6% chance to win championship and features seven Top 25 teams in our Power Rankings.