Big Ten Tourney (03/09/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. In the last week before Selection Sunday, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.

We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now! has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 97-70 (58% ATS and O/U), through 2014. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.

When: March 11-15

Where: Chicago, IL

The automatic bid goes to: Wisconsin (46.5%)

Wisconsin has a lot to play for with a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament up for grabs. The Badgers are heavy favorites (10/11 per to win the Big Ten Tournament. Despite winning the title 46.5% of the time in our simulations, there is no value in placing a bet on Frank Kaminsky and the Badgers to win it all.

And if they lose: Michigan State (12.3%)

The Spartans are currently projected as a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A deep run this week in Chicago could give Michigan State, a team with a top 20 offense, better seeding and an easier path to the Final Four.

Bid Thief:

Indiana: the Hoosiers stumbled down the stretch losing four of their last five games but Tom Crean's group has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. A couple breaks and Indiana, a top ten offensive team, could find itself competing for a Big 10 title.

Odds to win the Big Ten Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

Seed Team Quarterfinals Semifinals Title Game Champ.
1 Wisconsin 100.0 81.3 63.5 46.5
3 Michigan St. 100.0 49.3 29.8 12.3
6 Ohio State 67.1 36.3 23.1 9.5
5 Iowa 73.0 46.2 15.7 8.7
2 Maryland 100.0 52.3 22.7 6.6
7 Indiana 65.0 35.4 14.5 5.2
4 Purdue 100.0 43.5 10.8 4.8
8 Illinois 58.7 11.2 5.1 1.8
11 Minnesota 24.6 10.8 4.7 1.8
9 Michigan 41.2 7.5 2.5 1.0
13 Penn State 15.0 5.7 1.4 0.6
10 Northwestern 35.0 12.3 3.5 0.6
12 Nebraska 12.1 4.6 1.1 0.4
14 Rutgers 8.3 3.6 1.6 0.2