Big East Tourney (03/10/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. In the last week before Selection Sunday, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.

We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now! has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 97-70 (58% ATS and O/U), through 2014. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.

When: March 11-14

Where: New York, NY

The automatic bid goes to: Villanova (48.8%)

Nova is on a twelve game winning streak and is penciled in as a No. 1 seed in Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology. The Wildcats are one of six teams to rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in our Power Rankings.

And if they lose: Georgetown (14.3%)

The Hoyas are the last team to beat Villanova. Georgetown played its regular season finale without leading scorer D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera but the preseason Big East Player of the Year is expected back for the conference tournament.

Bid Thief:

Xavier: the Musketeers need a few wins to feel good about an invitation come Selection Sunday. Xavier has beat potential quarterfinal and semifinal opponents Butler and Georgetown already this season.

Odds to win the Big East Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

Seed Team Semifinals Title Game Champ.
1 Villanova 83.9 65.9 48.8
2 Georgetown 71.2 37.4 14.3
3 Butler 49.5 25.1 10.6
6 Xavier 50.5 27.6 10.3
4 Providence 50.4 15.2 6.0
5 St. John's 49.6 13.3 5.6
10 Creighton 17.3 5.9 1.5
8 Seton Hall 9.1 3.2 1.1
7 DePaul 11.5 4.0 1.0
9 Marquette 7.0 2.4 0.8