Big 12 Tourney (03/10/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. In the last week before Selection Sunday, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.

We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now! has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 97-70 (58% ATS and O/U), through 2014. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.

When: March 11-14

Where: Kansas City, MO

The automatic bid goes to: Kansas (21.0%)

The Jayhawks are the favorites to win the conference tournament after capturing their 11th consecutive Big 12 regular season title. Kansas dropped three of their last six games but they were playing shorthanded. Leading scorer Perry Ellis is expected back for the tournament.

And if they lose: Baylor and Iowa State (19.1)

This is the most competitive conference tournament among the power conferences. Any of the top four seeds could win and each Baylor and Iowa State have looked like the best team from the conference at various points in the season.

Bid Thief:

Texas: the Longhorns are in the mix for an at-large bid. Texas' record isn't pretty but a top ten schedule is partly to blame. Rick Barnes' team has one of the best defenses in the conference, a couple wins in the Big 12 Tournament and this former top ten squad can get an invite to the Big Dance.

Odds to win the Big 12 Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

Seed Team Semifinals Title Game Champ.
1 Kansas 72.8 39.6 21.0
4 Baylor 60.0 34.3 19.1
2 Iowa St. 62.1 34.6 19.1
3 Oklahoma 66.6 34.1 18.9
7 Texas 30.4 14.5 6.8
5 W. Va. 40.0 17.2 6.3
6 Oklahoma St. 33.4 13.4 4.4
9 TCU 15.7 5.1 2.3
8 Kansas St. 11.5 3.8 1.4
10 Texas Tech 7.5 3.6 0.7