ACC Tourney (03/09/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. In the last week before Selection Sunday, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.

We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now! has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 97-70 (58% ATS and O/U), through 2014. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.

When: March 10-14

Where: Greensboro, N.C.

The automatic bid goes to: Duke (30.7%)

The Blue Devils are 5/4 favorites (per to win the ACC Tournament. While Duke has won 19 ACC Tournament titles, most in league history, Coach K's team has stiff competition this year. Virginia, the No. 1 seed in the tournament, is ranked higher in our Power Rankings and is more likely to advance in each round of the tournament than Duke. However, in the most likely title game, the Blue Devils defeat the Cavaliers 59% of the time by an average score of 68.0-65.3.

And if they lose: Virginia (29.4%)

The Cavaliers are the top seed in the tournament for the second year in a row and are looking to repeat as champions for the first time in school history. If Tony Bennett's squad wants the crown it'll have to go through Duke and ACC Player of the Year Jahlil Okafor.

Bid Thief:

Miami (FL): The top six most likely tournament champions are all locks to make the Big Dance. The Hurricanes are firmly on the bubble. Miami will need a deep run in Greensboro (only a 21% chance to reach the semifinals) to hear its name called on Selection Sunday.

Odds to win the ACC Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

Seed Team Quarterfinals Semifinals Title Game Champ.
2 Duke 100.0 73.3 47.3 30.7
1 Virginia 100.0 82.6 56.5 29.4
3 Notre Dame 100.0 72.0 35.0 18.6
5 UNC 77.3 43.4 18.7 8.0
4 Louisville 100.0 49.1 18.1 6.5
7 NC State 57.7 16.4 6.8 2.3
6 Miami (FL) 65.9 20.9 6.0 1.7
10 Pittsburgh 42.3 10.3 3.9 1.2
8 Clemson 55.2 10.3 3.0 0.6
9 Fla. St. 44.8 7.1 2.0 0.4
11 Wake Forest 21.1 4.4 0.7 0.3
13 Ga. Tech. 12.5 4.1 1.0 0.2
12 Boston College 10.2 3.4 0.7 0.1
14 Va. Tech 13.0 2.7 0.3 0.0