NFL Trends Wild Card (12/31/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
­­NFL Wild Card Weekend betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

NFL Wild Card Weekend – Situational Trends

All-time, in Wild Card Weekend, road underdogs of three or more points are 39-49-1 (44% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Cardinals (+5) @ Panthers, Ravens (+3.5) @ Steelers, Bengals (+4) @ Colts, and Lions (+7) @ Cowboys.

All-time, in Wild Card Weekend, home favorites of seven or more points are 15-11 (58% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys (-7) vs. Lions.

Additional Notes

All-time, there have only been six playoff games featuring a team with seven wins. Five occurred in the 1983 playoffs when the regular season was shortened to nine games due to a strike, the other was in 2011 when the Seahawks won the NFC West with a 7-9 record.

All-time, the team with seven wins has a 4-2 straight-up record. The 2011 Seahawks, the only other team with a true losing record to make the playoffs, won its Wild Card round game as well.

The last time all four home teams on Wild Card Weekend were the favorites – 2007.

NFL Trends – Wild Card Weekend
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
AZ +5 @ CAR All-time, in the playoffs, the OVER in games with a total of 39 or fewer points is 102-76-6 (57%).
BAL +3.5 @ PIT In the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as underdogs in the playoffs are 6-3 (67% ATS).
CAR -5 vs. AZ Cam Newton as a home favorite in the regular season is 18-13 (58% ATS) but 0-1 ATS in the playoffs.
CIN +4 @ IND In the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals in the playoffs are 0-3 straight-up and 0-3 ATS.
DAL -7 vs. DET In the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys in the playoffs are 1-3 straight-up and 2-2 ATS.
DET +7 @ DAL All-time, in the playoffs, underdogs of seven or more points are 65-80-3 (45% ATS).
IND -4 vs. CIN Andrew Luck is 29-17-2 (63% ATS) in the regular season, 0-3 ATS in the playoffs.
PIT -3.5 vs. BAL In the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers at home in the playoffs are 6-2 (75% ATS).