NFL Trends Week 4 (09/24/14)

By John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
NFL Week 4 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

Week 4 – Situational Trends

Since 2004, underdogs of 10 or more points are: 199-155-3 (56% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Jaguars (+13.5) @ Chargers

Since 2004, teams that have lost three games in a row and are underdogs the next week are: 95-69-3 (58% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Steelers, Raiders (+4.5) vs. Dolphins, Jaguars (+13.5) @ Chargers.

NFL Trends – Week 4
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
ATL -3 @ MIN Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as road favorites are 12-8-1 (60% ATS).
BAL -3 vs. CAR Joe Flacco as a home favorite is 38-6 (86%) straight-up.
BUF +3 @ HOU All-time, following a loss and as a road dog of 3 or fewer points the Bills are 3-9 (25% ATS).
CAR +3 @ BAL Cam Newton as a road underdog is 11-4-1 (73% ATS).
CHI +1 vs. GB Since 2009, when Jay Cutler became the starter, the Bears when playing the NFC North are 12-19 (39% ATS).
DAL +3 vs. NO Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys as underdogs are 24-16 (60% ATS).
DET -1.5 @ NYJ Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has played every game, the Lions as road favorites are 3-7-1 (30% ATS).
GB -1 @ CHI Since 2008, when Aaron Rodgers became the starter, the Packers when playing the NFC North are 25-13-1 (66% ATS).
HOU -3 vs. BUF In the last 10 years, in Texans games where the total is 42 points or less, the under is 28-22-1 (56%).
IND -7.5 vs. TEN In Andrew Luck's career, as a home favorite, he is just 5-7 (42% ATS).
JAX +13 @ SD In the last 10 years, underdogs of 10 or more points are 199-155-3 (56% ATS).
KC +3.5 vs. NE All-time, the Chiefs as home underdogs are 60-32-4 (65% ATS).
MIA -4 @ OAK All-time, the Dolphins following a loss and as a favorite on the road or a neutral field are 15-8-1 (65% ATS).
MIN +3 vs. ATL All-time, following two ATS losses in a row and as home dogs, the Vikings are 8-5 (62% ATS).
NE -3.5 @ KC Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as road favorites are 38-29-1 (57% ATS).
NO -3 @ DAL Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints as road favorites of 3 or more points are 14-19 (42% ATS).
NYG +3.5 @ WAS Since 2005, when Eli Manning became the full time starter, the the Giants as road dogs of 3 or more points are 16-11-1 (59% ATS).
NYJ +1.5 vs. DET Since 2009, the Rex Ryan era, the Jets as home dogs are 7-2 (78% ATS).
OAK +4 vs. MIA All-time, teams that have lost three games in a row and are dogs the next week are 315-265-14 (54% ATS).
PHI +5.5 @ SF In the Chip Kelly era, the Eagles as road dogs are 5-1 (83% ATS).
PIT -7.5 vs. TB Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers as home favorites of 7 points or more are 28-3 (90%) straight-up.
SD -13 vs. JAX Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as favorites of 13 point or more are 1-8 (11% ATS).
SF -5.5 vs. PHI Since 2012, the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers as favorites are 17-10-1 (63% ATS).
TB +7.5 @ PIT All-time, teams that have lost three games in a row and are road dogs of 7 or more points are 83-70-3 (54% ATS).
TEN +7.5 @ IND All-time, teams that have lost two games in a row and are road dogs of 7 or more points are 162-133-5 (55% ATS).
WAS -3.5 vs. NYG All-time, the Redskins as home favorites of 3 or more points against the NFC East are 21-32-2 (40% ATS).