NFL Trends Week 17 (12/23/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NFL Week 17 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

Week 17 – Situational Trends

All-time, home favorites in Week 17 are: 135-109-5 (55% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (-3.5) vs. Panthers, Ravens (-9) vs. Browns, Broncos (-14.5) vs. Raiders, Packers (-7.5) vs. Lions, Texans (-10) vs. Jaguars, Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Chargers, Dolphins (-5.5) vs. Jets, Vikings (-7) vs. Bears, Patriots (-10.5) vs. Bills, Giants (-2.5) vs. Eagles, Steelers (-3) vs. Bengals, Seahawks (-13) vs. Rams, and 49ers (-5.5) vs. Cardinals.

All-time, home dogs in Week 17 are: 72-55-1 (57% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Buccaneers (+4) vs. Saints, Titans (+7) vs. Colts and Redskins (+6.5) vs. Cowboys.

All-time, teams last played on Saturday and are away underdogs are: 73-96-4 (43% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Eagles (+2.5) @ Redskins and Chargers (+2.5) @ Chiefs.

NFL Trends – Week 17
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
ATL -3.5 vs. CAR A win against Carolina clinches the NFC South, in the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as home favorites are 35-8 (81%) straight-up.
AZ +5.5 @ SF Arizona needs a win and Seattle loss to clinch NFC West, all-time the Cardinals as road dogs are 58-186-1 (24%) straight-up.
BAL -9 vs. CLE Baltimore needs a win to keep playoff hopes alive, in Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as a seven or more point favorite are 28-3 (90%) straight-up.
BUF +10.5 @ NE All-time, the Bills as double-digit dogs in Foxborough are 7-4 (64% ATS).
CAR +3.5 @ ATL In the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as road dogs are 13-8-1 (62% ATS) and have won nearly half of the games outright (9-12-1 straight-up).
CHI +7 @ MIN All-time, the Bears as road dogs of seven or more points against the NFC North are 14-10-1 (58% ATS).
CIN +3 @ PIT Cincinnati can clinch a playoff spot with a win, in the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals on the road against the AFC North are 4-7 (36%) straight-up.
CLE +9 @ BAL The Browns have not been a dog of a touchdown or more since last year, all-time Cleveland is 60-50-2 (55% ATS) in such games.
DAL -6.5 @ WAS All-time, as road favorites, the Cowboys are 66-82-1 (45% ATS).
DEN -14.5 vs. OAK Denver can clinch a bye with a win, in the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as double-digit favorites are 15-1 (94%) straight-up.
DET +7.5 @ GB Detroit clinches NFC North with a win, in Matthew Stafford era, the Lions as dogs of seven or more points are 0-4 straight-up and ATS.
GB -7.5 vs. DET Green Bay clinches NFC North with win, in the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers as home favorites of seven or more points are 28-4 (88%) straight-up.
HOU -10 vs. JAX Houston needs a win plus help to make playoffs, all-time as a favorite of seven or more points the Texans are 18-6 (75%) straight-up.
IND -7 @ TEN The last ten road favorites in Tennessee all won and went 7-2-1 (78% ATS).
JAX +10 @ HOU In the last ten years following a win, the Jaguars are 32-40 (44% ATS).
KC -2.5 vs. SD Kansas City makes the playoffs with a win and help, all-time the Chiefs as home favorites in December are 32-10 (76%) straight-up.
MIA -5.5 vs. NYJ All-time, the Dolphins as home favorites in December are 29-43-1 (40% ATS).
MIN -7 vs. CHI The last time Minnesota was favored by a touchdown or more was 2010, all-time the Vikings are 33-55-4 (38% ATS) in those scenarios.
NE -10.5 vs. BUF In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as favorites of 10 or more points against the AFC East are 7-13 (35% ATS).
NO -4 @ TB The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games as road favorites.
NYG -2.5 vs. PHI Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as home favorites against the Eagles are 2-6 (25% ATS).
NYJ +5.5 @ MIA The Jets struggle to win on the road, New York is just 2-8 straight-up in its last ten road games.
OAK +14.5 @ DEN Since 2002, road dogs of 10 or more points are 192-156-5 (55% ATS).
PHI +2.5 @ NYG All-time, as a road dog against the New York Giants, the Eagles are 16-12 (57% ATS).
PIT -3 vs. CIN Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with a win, in the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers as home favorites are 61-21 (74%) straight-up.
SD +2.5 @ KC San Diego clinches a playoff spot with win at Kansas City, in the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road dogs are 18-19 straight-up.
SEA -13 vs. STL Seattle can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win, in the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as double-digit home favorites are 9-1 straight-up.
SF -5.5 vs. AZ The 49ers are 7-2-1 straight-up at home in its last ten games against the NFC West but 4-5-1 ATS in those games.
STL +13 @ SEA In the Russell Wilson era, road dogs of 10 or more points in Seattle are 5-4-1 (56% ATS).
TB +4 vs. NO Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Buccaneers as home dogs are 14-23-2 (38% ATS).
TEN +7 vs. IND Dating back to 1999, the Titans are 5-1 ATS following a game on Thursday Night Football.
WAS +6.5 vs. DAL All-time, as a home dog against Dallas, the Redskins are 11-6 (65% ATS).