NFL Trends Week 16 (12/17/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NFL Week 16 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

Week 16 – Situational Trends

All-time, teams that have lost eight or more games in a row and are underdogs are: 36-21-1 (63% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Titans (+3) @ Jaguars.

All-time, home underdogs in Week 16 and 17 of the regular season are: 155-119-7 (57% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Cardinals (+8) vs. Seahawks, Bears (+7) vs. Lions, Bengals (+3) vs. Broncos, Texans (+5.5) vs. Ravens, Jets (+10) vs. Patriots, Raiders (+5.5) vs. Bills, Buccaneers (+10.5) vs. Packers and Redskins (+7.5) vs. Eagles.

All-time, double-digit road favorites in Week 16 or later in the season are: 7-14 (33% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Packers (-10.5) @ Buccaneers and Patriots (-10) @ Jets.

NFL Trends – Week 16
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
ATL +6 @ NO Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons on the road in December are 11-4 (73% ATS).
AZ +8 vs. SEA A team with 10 or more wins has never been a home dog of more than a touchdown. Teams with 10 or more wins that are home dogs in the regular season are 6-4 (60% ATS).
BAL -5.5 @ HOU The Ravens are currently the 6th seed in the AFC and need a win against the Texans to keep their playoff hopes alive. All-time, road favorites in Houston are 32-14 (70%) straight-up.
BUF -5.5 @ OAK All-time, the Bills as road favorites are 34-43-3 (44% ATS).
CAR -4 vs. CLE Carolina needs a win to stay in the NFC South race, during the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as home favorites are 14-5 (74%) straight-up. The Panthers have won both games Newton has missed in his career.
CHI +7 vs. DET In the last ten games as home underdogs, the Bears are 2-8 (20% ATS).
CIN +3 vs. DEN Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs on Monday Night Football are 33-43 (43% ATS).
CLE +4 @ CAR The Browns have lost ten straight December games.
DAL -3 vs. IND Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys as home favorites are 25-38 (40% ATS).
DEN -3 @ CIN All-time, on Monday Night Football, Peyton Manning is 12-5 (71% ATS).
DET -7 @ CHI Since 2011, the Mathew Stafford era, the Lions have only been road favorites against the NFC North four times and are 1-3 ATS in those games.
GB -10.5 @ TB Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers following a loss are 21-15-1 (58% ATS).
HOU +5.5 vs. BAL The Texans have covered in six of the team's last seven games as home dogs of more than a field goal.
IND +3 @ DAL Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as road dogs are 4-8-1 (33% ATS).
JAX -3 vs. TEN This is the first time that Jacksonville has been a favorite since Week 17 2011. Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Jaguars as favorites are 29-40-1 (42% ATS).
KC +3 @ PIT Kansas City is the 7th seed in the AFC, the Chiefs need a win against the Steelers but all-time road teams in Pittsburgh during December are 22-56 (28%) straight-up.
MIA -6.5 vs. MIN All-time, the Dolphins as home favorites in December are 29-43-1 (40% ATS).
MIN +6.5 @ MIA All-time, road dogs in Miami of 6 or more points are 63-52-3 (55% ATS).
NE -10 @ NYJ Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as double-digit favorites are 16-30 (35% ATS).
NO -6 vs. ATL Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints at home against the Falcons are 7-1 straight-up and 5-3 ATS.
NYG +5 @ STL Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as road dogs are 30-22-1 (58% ATS).
NYJ +10 vs. NE The Jets have only been double-digit home dogs once, in 1978 against the Steelers, New York covered the spread.
OAK +5.5 vs. BUF All-time, the Raiders as home dogs are 38-48-2 (44% ATS).
PHI -7.5 @ WAS All-time, the Eagles as road favorites against the NFC East are 20-11-2 (65% ATS).
PIT -3 vs. KC Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers at home in December are 15-10-1 (60% ATS).
SD +2.5 @ SF Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road dogs are 21-12-3 (64% ATS).
SEA -8 @ AZ Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks are 31-16-4 (66% ATS). As a road favorite against the NFC West the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS.
SF -2.5 vs. SD All-time, the 49ers as home favorites in December are 35-27-2 (57% ATS).
STL -5 vs. NYG This is the first time the Rams have been favorites in four straight games since the 2006-07 season. During that time St. Louis as a home favorite is 9-13 (41% ATS).
TB +10.5 vs. GB All-time, the Buccaneers have been home dogs of 10 or more points five times and are 1-4 ATS in those games.
TEN +3 @ JAX All-time, road underdogs on Thursday Night Football are 55-71-6 (44% ATS).
WAS +7.5 vs. PHI All-time, when the Redskins play football on Saturday Washington is 21-13-1 (62% ATS).