NFL Trends Week 15 (12/10/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NFL Week 15 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

Week 15 – Situational Trends

All-time, home dogs in December are: 374-306-17 (55% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (+2.5) vs. Steelers, Bills (+5) vs. Packers, Bears (+3) vs. Saints, Chargers (+4) vs. Broncos and Titans (+1.5) vs. Jets.

Baltimore -13.5 vs. Jacksonville is the fourth highest spread this season. All double-digit favorites in 2014 are: 7-11 (39% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders, Ravens (-13.5) vs. Jaguars, and Seahawks (-10) vs. 49ers.

All-time, teams that won by three touchdowns the previous week and then are road favorites the following week are 185-233-9 (44% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Steelers (-2.5) @ Falcons.

NFL Trends – Week 15
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
ATL +2.5 vs. PIT In the last 10 years, home dogs that played on Monday Night Football the previous week are 26-34-3 (43% ATS).
AZ +4.5 @ STL All-time, 10 win teams in Week 15 or later in the season that are road dogs are 160-188-8 (46% ATS).
BAL -13.5 vs. JAX The Ravens are currently the 7th seed in the AFC, since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, Baltimore as a double-digit favorite is 14-0 straight-up.
BUF +5 vs. GB Buffalo has a 5% chance of making the playoffs and need a win against Green Bay. All-time, the Bills as home underdogs are 29-68 (30%) straight-up.
CAR -3.5 vs. TB Carolina is battling for the NFC South title, in the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as home favorites are 13-5 straight-up and 12-6 (67% ATS).
CHI +3 vs. NO All-time, the Bears on Monday Night Football are 22-32-2 (41% ATS).
CIN Pick'em @ CLE All-time, the Bengals on the road in Cleveland are 13-19 (41% ATS).
CLE Pick'em vs. CIN All-time, the Browns at home against its AFC North brethren are 44-36-2 (55% ATS).
DAL +3.5 @ PHI In the Tony Romo era, Dallas in a second matchup against an opponent it lost to earlier in the season, the Cowboys are 4-7 (36% ATS).
DEN -4 @ SD In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as road favorites are 12-6 (67% ATS).
DET -7.5 vs. MIN Since 2011, the Matthew Stafford era, the Lions as home favorites against the NFC North are 6-2 (75% ATS).
GB -5 @ BUF Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers against the AFC East are 5-2 (71%) straight-up.
HOU +6.5 @ IND All-time, the Texans are just 4-21 (16%) straight-up against the Colts and winless in Indianapolis.
IND -6.5 vs. HOU All-time, the Colts at home against the Texans are 8-4 (67% ATS).
JAX +13.5 @ BAL Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, double-digits underdogs are 225-178-4 (56% ATS).
KC -10 vs. OAK Since 2002, the last time the Raiders were in the playoffs, double-digit favorites facing Oakland are 28-6 (82%) straight-up.
MIA +7.5 @ NE The Dolphins are in the playoff race but Miami is just 1-11 on the road in Foxborough when facing Tom Brady.
MIN +7.5 @ DET All-time, the Vikings as road dogs of a touchdown or more against the NFC North are 1-12 straight-up.
NE -7.5 vs. MIA Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as home favorites are 58-47-5 (55% ATS).
NO -3 @ CHI Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints on Monday Night Football are 11-4 straight-up and 9-6 ATS.
NYG -6.5 vs. WAS Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as home favorites of 7 or more points are 9-16 (36% ATS).
NYJ -1.5 @ TEN Since 2009, the Rex Ryan era, the Jets as road favorites are 8-4-1 (67% ATS) but the Jets haven't been road favorites since December 2012.
OAK +10 @ KC All-time, road teams in December in Arrowhead are 29-36 (45% ATS).
PHI -3.5 vs. DAL The Eagles hold the tiebreaker over the Cowboys for the division title, since 2013, Chip Kelly era, the Eagles as home favorites are 10-5 (67%) straight-up.
PIT -2.5 @ ATL Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, road favorites in Atlanta are 4-9-1 (31% ATS).
SD +4 vs. DEN Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers have only been home dogs against the AFC West once, last year vs Denver. Broncos won and covered that game.
SEA -10 vs. SF In the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as double-digit favorites are 9-1 straight-up.
SF +10 @ SEA The 49ers have never been double-digit dogs in the Jim Harbaugh era. In that same time frame, the 49ers have only been dogs of a touchdown or more once, they won and covered that game (+9 @ Eagles 2011).
STL -4.5 vs. AZ The Rams are just fifth team to pitch shutouts in back-to-back weeks this century, the other teams went 3-1 ATS the next week.
TB +3.5 @ CAR The Bucs last made the playoffs in 2007, Tampa Bay only has 5 road wins vs. NFC South teams since that playoff appearance.
TEN +1.5 vs. NYJ All-time, the Titans as home dogs on Sundays are 50-36-2 (58% ATS).
WAS +6.5 @ NYG All-time, teams that lost five games in a row and are underdogs are 128-104-3 (55% ATS).