NFL Trends Week 11 (11/12/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NFL Week 11 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

Week 11 – Situational Trends

Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, all teams coming off a bye and as a home favorite are 82-63-3 (57% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Colts (-3) vs. Patriots, Chargers (-10) vs. Raiders and Redskins (-7) vs. Buccaneers.

Last year, favorites of 7 or more points were 41-44-2 (48% ATS). This year, favorites of 7 or more points are 22-18-1 (55% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Broncos (-9.5) @ Rams, Saints (-7) vs. Bengals, Chargers (-10) vs. Raiders and Redskins (-7) vs. Buccaneers.

All-time, teams that have covered the spread in eight straight games are 5-5-1 (50% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Seahawks.

NFL Trends – Week 11
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
AZ -2 vs. DET All-time, teams with eight wins in Week 11 and as favorites are 24-19-2 (56% ATS).
ATL +1.5 @ CAR Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons on the road against the NFC South are 6-11-1 (35% ATS).
BUF +5.5 @ MIA All-time, underdogs of 3 or more points on Thursday Night are 71-87-8 (45% ATS).
CAR -1.5 vs. ATL Since 2011, the Cam Newton era, the Panthers against the NFC South are 12-8 (60% ATS).
CHI -3 vs. MIN All-time, teams that lost by 40 or more points and return home the next game are 26-20-2 (57% ATS).
CIN +7 @ NO All-time, teams that lost by 3 touchdowns or more and are road dogs of 3 or more points are 246-200-12 (55% ATS).
CLE -3 vs. HOU All-time, teams that last played on Thursday Night and are home favorites are 70-53 (57% ATS).
DEN -9.5 @ STL The Broncos, with Peyton Manning, as favorites of 7 or more points are 17-7-2 (71% ATS).
DET +2 @ AZ Since 2011, the Matthew Stafford era, the Lions on the road are 12-16-1 (43% ATS).
GB -5.5 vs. PHI The Packers, in the last twenty games as home favorites are 11-8-1 (58% ATS).
HOU +3 @ CLE All-time, in Texans' games following a bye, the under is 8-4 (67% Under).
IND -3 vs. NE Teams facing Tom Brady off of a bye are 3-10 straight-up, Andrew Luck as favorite is 15-9-1 (63% ATS).
KC -1.5 vs. SEA All-time, the Chiefs as home favorites in November or later in the season are 40-52-2 (44% ATS).
MIA -5.5 vs. BUF Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home favorites on Thursday Night are 38-24-5 (61% ATS).
MIN +3 @ CHI Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, underdogs coming off a bye are 55-123-2 (31%) straight-up.
NE +3 @ IND Since 2001, the Patriots as road dogs are 29-15 (66% ATS).
NO -7 vs. CIN Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, following a loss the Saints are 20-14 (59% ATS).
NYG +4 vs. SF Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as home dogs are 3-10 (30%) straight-up.
OAK +10 @ SD All-time, winless teams in Week 11 or later of the season are 28-15 (65% ATS).
PHI +5.5 @ GB In Mark Sanchez's career as a starter, as a road dog of 3 or more points he is 7-11-1 (39% ATS).
PIT -5.5 @ TEN Since 2004, road favorites on Monday Night Football are 35-27 (57% ATS).
SD -10 vs. OAK All-time, teams coming off a bye and as favorites of 10 or more points are 19-24-3 (44% ATS).
SEA +1.5 @ KC Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as road dogs are 5-1-1 (83% ATS).
SF -4 @ NYG Since 2012, the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers on the road are 13-6-2 (68% ATS).
STL +9.5 vs. DEN Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs of 7 or more points are 121-91-3 (57% ATS).
TB +7 @ WAS In the last five years, the Buccaneers as road dogs of 7 or more points are 15-9 (63% ATS).
TEN +5.5 vs. TEN In the last ten years, home dogs on Monday Night Football are 27-35 (44% ATS).
WAS -7 vs. TB In the last 20 games as favorites of 7 or more points, the Redskins are 6-14 (30% ATS).