NFL Trends Week 10 (11/4/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NFL Week 10 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

Week 10 – Situational Trends

Since 2004, all teams that lost by 21 or more points and are then favored by double digits are 12-8 (60% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Broncos (-11.5) @ Raiders.

The fallacy of betting the home underdog: from 1978 to 2003, home dogs were 993-828-55 (55% ATS). From 2004 through 2014, home dogs are 431-451-23 (49% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Bills (+1.5) vs. Chiefs, Jets (+4.5) vs. Steelers and Raiders (+11.5) vs. Broncos.

Since 2004, home dogs in the month November are 76-124-11 (38% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Bills (+1.5) vs. Chiefs, Jets (+4.5) vs. Steelers and Raiders (+11.5) vs. Broncos.

NFL Trends – Week 10
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
ATL -1 @ TB All-time, teams that lost by 3 or fewer points and are coming off a bye are 52-37-1 (58% ATS).
AZ -7 vs. STL All-time, the Cardinals as favorites of 7 or more points are 8-18-1 (31% ATS).
BAL -9.5 vs TEN Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as favorites of 7 or more points are 26-3 (90%) straight-up.
BUF +1.5 vs. KC Since 2012, home dogs of less than a field goal are 67-52-6 (56% ATS).
CAR +6 @ PHI Since 2011, the Cam Newton era, the Panthers on any day besides Sunday are 4-2 (67% ATS).
CHI +7 @ GB Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears against the Packers are 2-10 (17%) straight-up and 3-9 (25% ATS).
CIN -6 vs. CLE Since 2009, against the Browns, the Bengals have been favored in 8 of the last 10 games and are 1-6-1 (14% ATS) as favorites.
CLE +6 @ CIN Since 2009, in the last ten meetings between the Bengals/Browns, the over is 7-3 (70% over) but the total has never been set as high as 45 points.
DAL -6 vs. JAX Since 2006, when Tony Romo has missed a start, the Cowboys as favorites are 2-4 (33% ATS) and 6-8 (43% ATS) in all games.
DEN -11.5 @ OAK In Peyton Manning's career, as a double digit favorite he is 41-5 (89%) straight-up and 25-21 (54% ATS).
DET -3 vs. MIA Since 2004, teams coming off a bye and as home favorites are 64-51-3 (56% ATS).
GB -7 vs. CHI Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers following a bye are 6-0 straight-up and against-the-spread.
JAX +6 vs. DAL All-time, teams that start the season with a 1-8 record and are underdogs are 28-18-1 (61% ATS).
KC -1.5 @ BUF All-time, teams that have covered the spread six straight weeks are 38-48-2 (44% ATS) in their next game.
MIA +3 @ DET All-time, teams that won by 5 or more touchdowns and are underdogs the next week are 18-28-2 (39% ATS).
NO -4.5 vs. SF Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints at home against teams from the NFC West are 7-2-1 (78% ATS).
NYG +9 @ SEA Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as dogs of 7 or more points are 11-3 (79% ATS).
NYJ +5 vs. PIT Since 2001, when Michael Vick entered the league, teams with one win in Week 10 or later are 56-40-2 (58% ATS).
OAK +11.5 vs. DEN All-time, winless teams that are dogs of 10 or more points are 141-99-9 (59% ATS).
PHI -6 vs. CAR The last time Mark Sanchez was a favorite of 6 or more points was 2011 (Jets -9 @ Chiefs). Sanchez is 6-4 (60% ATS) in last ten games as favorite of 6 or more points.
PIT -5 @ NYJ Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, after winning by two or more touchdowns the Steelers are 19-24 (44% ATS).
SEA -9 vs. NYG All-time, teams that have failed to cover against-the-spread 4 weeks in a row and are favorites of 7 or more points are 27-17 (61% ATS).
SF +4.5 @ NO Since 2012, the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers on the road are 12-6-2 (67% ATS).
STL +7 @ AZ Since 2010, following a win the Rams are 10-6-1 (63% ATS), in all other situations STL is 24-30-1 (44% ATS).
TB +1 vs. ATL Since 2004, teams whose opponent is coming off a bye are 149-178-6 (46% ATS).
TEN +9.5 @ BAL All-time, teams coming off a bye and as an underdog of 7 points or more are 68-48-4 (59% ATS).