NFL Trends Divisional (01/07/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
­­NFL Divisional Playoffs betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

NFL Divisional Playoffs – Situational Trends

All-time, in the Divisional Playoffs, underdogs of 7 or more points are 33-40-1 (45% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Ravens (+7) @ Patriots, Panthers (+10.5) @ Seahawks and Colts (+7) @ Broncos.

All-time, in the playoffs, the OVER in games with a total of 53 or more points is 18-14 (56%) over.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys/Packers (over/under 53 points) and Colts/Broncos (over/under 54 points).

Additional Notes

Do you like betting favorites? All four favorites in the Divisional Playoffs have not covered since 1991.

Will Carolina's playoff run end in Seattle this weekend? If history is any indication it will. All-time, road underdogs of ten or more points are 9-42 (18%) straight-up.

NFL Trends – Divisional Playoffs
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
BAL +7 @ NE In the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens in the playoffs are 10-4 (71% ATS).
CAR +10.5 @ SEA All-time in the regular season, double-digit dogs are 559-461-23 (55% ATS), in the playoffs 24-28-1 (46% ATS).
DAL +6 @ GB All-time, the Cowboys have played in 37 playoff games and have only been dogs in ten and are 4-6 (40% ATS) in those situations.
DEN -7 vs. IND In his career, Peyton Manning in the Divisional Playoffs is 3-6 (33% ATS).
GB -6 vs. DAL In the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers in the playoffs are 5-4 (56% ATS).
IND +7 @ DEN All-time, teams facing Peyton Manning in the playoffs as touchdown or greater dogs are 4-2 (67% ATS).
NE -7 vs. BAL In his career, Tom Brady as a home favorite in the playoffs is 7-10-1 (41% ATS).
SEA -10.5 vs. CAR Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded to 12 teams, double-digit favorites in the Divisional Playoffs are 12-6 (67% ATS).