NFL Playoff Scenarios (12/23/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NFL Playoff Scenarios: what are the odds for each contender to reach the postseason?



Ten teams have clinched a playoff berth. That leaves six teams competing for two spots with one week to go.

What are the odds for the six remaining teams to make the playoffs?

Below we look at the different scenarios for each team to reach the postseason with our projected odds that each team makes the playoffs.

NFC teams that have clinched: Arizona, Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle.

AFC teams that have clinched: Cincinnati, Denver, Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh.

The NFC South


A win-and-you're-in finale will determine the division winner. There will be a team with a losing record in the postseason for the first time since 2010. Which NFC South team will get to host a playoff game?

Carolina can clinch the NFC South title with: a win or tie.
The Panthers are 46 percent likely to make the playoffs.

Atlanta can clinch the NFC South title with: a win.
The Falcons are 54 percent likely to make the playoffs.

San Diego Chargers


San Diego can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Kansas City, or a tie plus a Baltimore loss or tie.

The Chargers are 43.7 percent likely to make the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens


Baltimore can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Cleveland plus a San Diego loss or tie, or a tie against Cleveland and a San Diego loss.

The Ravens are 36.1 percent likely to make the playoffs.

Houston Texans


Houston can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Jacksonville, plus a Baltimore loss and a San Diego loss.

The Texans are 14.5 percent likely to make the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs


Kansas City can clinch a playoff spot with a win against San Diego plus a Baltimore loss and a Houston loss or tie.

The Chiefs are 5.7 percent likely to make the playoffs.