Playoff Value Bets (04/30/13)

By John Ewing

After 50,000 simulations of the 2013 NHL Playoffs we look for some value in the Stanley Cup future odds. Below are the preseason odds for teams and where their odds have moved after a shortened hockey season.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Stanley Cup and compare that to our projected odds that they win the title. For example, Boston is listed at 9/1 to win the title, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on Boston they would need to win the playoffs 10.0% (which is 1/(1+9)) of the time. We project the Bruins to win it all 3.3%, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 9/1 odds.

Teams with value

Montreal Canadiens (29-14, 63 points): opened 40-1

Current odds: 11-1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 8.3%

Montreal wins the title 12.0% of the time

If Carey Price can return to early season form then the Canadiens can continue an amazing run that has seen them go from 15th last year in the Eastern Conference to second. Montreal has the 5th best power play in the league.

Washington Capitals (27-18, 57 points): opened 30-1

Current odds: 18-1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 5.3%

Washington wins the title 6.3% of the time

The Capitals finished the season on a 15-2-2 tear as Alex Ovechkin led the league in goals scored. Ovechkin also leads the league in power play goals, which has helped the Capitals earn the best power play in the league.

Toronto Maple Leafs (26-17, 57 points): opened 40-1

Current odds: 22-1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 4.3%

Toronto wins the title 5.8% of the time

Toronto is a long shot to win but Nazem Kadri (18 goals, 44 points) has emerged as a scoring threat for the Maple Leafs. Toronto also gets a Bruins team in the first round that has limped to the finish dropping their season finale and falling to the fourth seed. Toronto is one of three teams to pull an upset beating Boston 54.1% of the time in the first round matchup.

Below are the odds for each team, preseason and current, plus odds needed in order to place a wager and our projected odds for each team to win the Stanley Cup.

Team Preseason Odds Current Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
PENGUINS 8-1 13-4 23.5% 19.6%
BLACKHAWKS 10-1 15-4 21.1% 19.0%
BRUINS 12-1 9-1 10.0% 3.3%
CANADIENS 40-1 11-1 8.3% 12.0%
DUCKS 30-1 12-1 7.7% 7.7%
KINGS 9-1 14-1 6.7% 5.9%
CANUCKS 10-1 14-1 6.7% 1.7%
BLUES 16-1 14-1 6.7% 2.9%
SHARKS 25-1 16-1 5.9% 3.4%
CAPITALS 30-1 18-1 5.3% 6.3%
RANGERS 8-1 18-1 5.3% 4.3%
MAPLE LEAFS 40-1 22-1 4.3% 5.8%
WILD 30-1 28-1 3.4% 1.3%
RED WINGS 12-1 28-1 3.4% 2.5%
SENATORS 40-1 28-1 3.4% 2.5%
ISLANDERS 100-1 40-1 2.4% 1.9%