Odds to win Regions (03/19/2013)

By John Ewing

After simulating the entire bracket 50,000 times we look for value in the odds to win each region of the 2013 NCAA Tournament.

We have given you our most likely bracket, bracket odds, bracket analysis, and value bets on future odds. Now we go down a level and look for value on the odds to win each region. It can be difficult to pick the winner of the NCAA Tournament; you probably have filled out multiple brackets and might have a different winner for each one. Nevertheless, there is a region that you feel confident in - you know who will reach the Final Four. Maybe there is value in that team; below we tell you.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the region and compare that to our projected odds that they advance to the Final Four. For example, Saint Mary’s is listed at 54/1 to win the Midwest. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on Saint Mary’s they would need to win the region 1.8% (which is 1/(1+55)) of the time. We project the Gaels to win it all 2.1%, meaning there is value in placing a bet at 55/1 odds.

Midwest

Creighton (27-7, 13-5 MVC)

Final Four – 6.9%, Champion – 1.4%

Creighton got a tough draw, they are in the most difficult region but they are still a dangerous team. The Bluejays have won seven of their last eight games in route to the MVC Tournament Championship. Creighton has proven itself this season by beating other tournament teams Wisconsin and Wichita State. Even better, the Bluejays are 5-0 in neutral site games this season.

Additional Value Bets in the Midwest Region – Colorado State, Saint Mary’s

West

Iowa State (22-11, 11-7 Big 12)

Final Four – 3.7%, Champion – 0.4%

There has never been a three-point shot that Iowa State has passed up; they are chuckers. The Cyclones will put five players on the court at a time that will hoist it from long range. This style of play can stretch a defense and leave opponents vulnerable to weak side cuts for easy baskets. Iowa State also crashes the boards, 21st in the nation in rebounding, setting themselves up for additional looks from behind the arc.

Additional Value Bets in the West Region – Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Harvard, Notre Dame, Iona

South

North Carolina (24-10, 12-6 ACC)

Final Four – 8.3%, Champion – 1.4%

North Carolina is under-seeded, the Tar Heels are 15th in our Power Rankings, but should be more of a four seed. The selection committee could not pass up the opportunity of having Roy Williams face his former team, Kansas, in the Round of 32. UNC is a balanced team that rates out 28th and 27th in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels have been playing better lately, 8-2 in their last ten, plus the first half effort they showed against Miami in the ACC tournament makes me a believer that they can play with any team in the country.

Additional Value Bets in the South Region – Michigan, Minnesota, San Diego State, Oklahoma

East

Indiana (27-7, 14-4 Big Ten)

Final Four – 49.8%, Champion – 23.5%

This is simple, Indiana is our most likely tournament winner. They are also the only team ever in our simulations to be 50% likely to make the Final Four. Zeller, Oladipo and company will carry this team far in the tournament.

Additional Value Bets in the East Region – NC State, Marquette

Below are the odds for all teams.

Region  Seed  Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
Midwest 1  Louisville 1/1 50.0% 40.2%
Midwest 16  Liberty 3500/1 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 16  UNC-A&T 3500/1 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 8  Colorado St. 55/1 1.8% 2.6%
Midwest 9  Missouri 22/1 4.3% 3.2%
Midwest 5  Oklahoma St. 22/1 4.3% 3.2%
Midwest 12  Oregon 60/1 1.6% 0.8%
Midwest 4  St. Louis 8/1 11.1% 5.9%
Midwest 13  New Mexico St. 250/1 0.4% 0.2%
Midwest 6  Memphis 35/1 2.8% 1.2%
Midwest 11  Middle Tenn. 75/1 1.3% 0.8%
Midwest 11  Saint Mary's 55/1 1.8% 2.1%
Midwest 3  Michigan St. 6/1 14.3% 10.5%
Midwest 14  Valparaiso 100/1 1.0% 0.3%
Midwest 7  Creighton 18/1 5.3% 6.9%
Midwest 10  Cincinnati 55/1 1.8% 0.8%
Midwest 2  Duke 7/2 28.6% 21.3%
Midwest 15  Albany 1500/1 0.1% 0.0%
Region  Seed  Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
West 1  Gonzaga 5/2 28.6% 29.6%
West 16  Southern U. 1500/1 0.0% 0.0%
West 8  Pittsburgh 8/1 11.1% 11.9%
West 9  Wichita St. 50/1 2.0% 1.0%
West 5  Wisconsin 5/1 16.7% 9.3%
West 12  Mississippi 45/1 2.2% 2.0%
West 4  Kansas St. 30/1 3.2% 3.2%
West 13  Boise St. 75/1 1.3% 0.5%
West 13  La Salle 100/1 1.0% 0.5%
West 6  Arizona 15/1 6.3% 5.4%
West 11  Belmont 60/1 1.6% 1.6%
West 3  New Mexico 4/1 20.0% 6.4%
West 14  Harvard 850/1 0.1% 0.2%
West 7  Notre Dame 30/1 3.2% 3.7%
West 10  Iowa St. 45/1 2.2% 3.7%
West 2  Ohio State 3/1 25.0% 20.5%
West 15  Iona 850/1 0.0% 0.5%
Region  Seed  Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
South 1  Kansas 13/5 27.8% 17.7%
South 16  W. Kentucky 1000/1 0.1% 0.0%
South 8  UNC 20/1 4.8% 8.3%
South 9  Villanova 75/1 1.3% 0.8%
South 5  VCU 12/1 7.7% 5.6%
South 12  Akron 75/1 1.3% 0.7%
South 4  Michigan 6/1 14.3% 17.9%
South 13  SD St. 300/1 0.3% 0.3%
South 6  UCLA 55/1 1.85 1.1%
South 11  Minnesota 22/1 4.3% 4.8%
South 3  Florida 8/5 38.5% 27.6%
South 14  Northwestern St. 1000/1 0.1% 0.1%
South 7  San Diego St. 35/1 2.8% 3.4%
South 10  Oklahoma 75/1 1.3% 1.5%
South 2  Georgetown 9/2 18.2% 10.1%
South 15  Fla. Gulf Coast 750/1 0.1% 0.1%
Region  Seed  Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
East 1  Indiana 11/10 47.6% 49.8%
East 16  Long Island 2000/1 0.0% 0.0%
East 16  James Madison 2000/1 0.0% 0.0%
East 8  NC State 22/1 4.3% 4.4%
East 9  Temple 75/1 1.3% 0.8%
East 5  UNLV 22/1 4.3% 2.5%
East 12  California 60/1 1.6% 1.0%
East 4  Syracuse 6/1 14.3% 13.4%
East 13  Montana 500/1 0.2% 0.1%
East 6  Butler 22/1 4.3% 2.0%
East 11  Bucknell 50/1 2.0% 1.2%
East 3  Marquette 18/1 5.3% 6.9%
East 14  Davidson 60/1 1.6% 1.6%
East 7  Illinois 25/1 3.8% 2.3%
East 10  Colorado 45/1 2.2% 1.8%
East 2  Miami (FL) 11/5 31.3% 12.2%
East 15  Pacific 450/1 0.2% 0.1%