Playoff Odds (08/15/13)

By John Ewing
Where is the value? Odds for each NFL team to make the playoffs in 2013. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.


 
Below we look for value in the odds to make the 2013 NFL playoffs. We utilize our 2013 NFL Preview, Projected Standings and Playoff Probabilities to find the likelihood of a given team reaching the postseason.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to make the playoffs and compare that to our projected odds to reach the postseason. For example, Denver is listed at 1/10 to make the playoffs, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Broncos they would need to reach the postseason 90.9% (which is 10/(1+10)) of the time. We project the Broncos to reach the playoffs 91.1% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at 1/10 odds.

Miami Dolphins
Odds: 2/1
Implied Chance: 33.3%
Projected Chance: 45.2%
 
Miami is one of our teams that should surprise (in a good way) this year. We project the Dolphins to win 8 games on average and make the playoffs 45.2% of the time. The Fins win fewer games on average than the Steelers (one of our most likely playoff teams) but as the clear second best team in the AFC East; Miami actually makes the playoffs about 10% more often than Pittsburgh.
 
The Dolphins improved their offense through free agency (Mike Wallace) and experience; Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller both enter their second seasons after solid rookie campaigns. The Miami defense ranked 14th last year in Football Outsiders DVOA, this year we project the Dolphins defense as the 6th best in the league and exceedingly efficient against the run.

St. Louis Rams
Odds: 3/1
Implied Chance: 25.0%
Projected Chance: 35.9%
 
Believe in the stache, the Rams are on the rise. At least that is what the marketing team in the front office wants you to believe and we are inclined to agree. St. Louis is 8th in our Power Rankings behind the strength of their defense (3rd overall, 6th defensive pass efficiency, 8th defensive rush efficiency). The former Greatest Show on Turf now has one of the best pass rushes in the game, tied with Denver last season for most sacks (52).
  
St. Louis has surrounded Sam Bradford with young weapons, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, Chris Givens, & Daryl Richardson, that should make the offense more explosive. If the offense takes a step forward the Rams could surprise people even having to face the 49ers and Seahawks twice each. We project the Rams to make the postseason for the first time since 2004.
 
New York Jets
Odds: 6/1
Implied Chance: 14.3%
Projected Chance: 24.5%
 
2012 was a rough year to be a Jets fan, even Fireman Ed quit. A never-ending quarterback controversy coupled with a terrible offense helped the Jets go 6-10. Fun 2012 stats for Jets fans: -94 in point differential (26th in NFL), -14 in turnover margin (28th in NFL), 30th in yards/game, and 28th in scoring.
 
In a way, our 2013 outlook takes a sunny disposition as we project Gang Green to win 7 games, two more than the Pythagorean wins suggested the Jets should have won last season. That being said, the Jets could be a team that none of its skill position players are started in a standard fantasy league. Nonetheless, there is value in betting the Jets at 6/1 to make the playoffs. 
 
Additional teams with value: Bills, Panthers, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, and 49ers. 

2013 NFL Playoff Odds, lines courtesy of Bovada.lv

Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
Arizona Cardinals 10/1 9.1% 7.3%
Atlanta Falcons 1/2 66.7% 42.9%
Baltimore Ravens 1/1 50.0% 45.8%
Buffalo Bills 4/1 20.0% 28.5%
Carolina Panthers 2/1 33.3% 38.5%
Chicago Bears 3/2 40.0% 33.0%
Cincinnati Bengals 1/1 50.0% 44.1%
Cleveland Browns 9/2 18.2% 14.1%
Dallas Cowboys 3/2 40.0% 33.7%
Denver Broncos 1/10 90.9% 91.1%
Detroit Lions 5/2 28.6% 21.8%
Green Bay Packers 2/7 77.8% 69.7%
Houston Texans 2/9 81.8% 79.3%
Indianapolis Colts 3/2 40.0% 38.6%
Jacksonville Jaguars 15/1 6.3% 2.6%
Kansas City Chiefs 3/1 25.0% 31.2%
Miami Dolphins 2/1 33.3% 45.2%
Minnesota Vikings 7/2 22.2% 8.2%
New England Patriots 1/6 85.7% 78.6%
New Orleans Saints 5/9 64.3% 29.0%
New York Giants 20/23 53.5% 48.8%
New York Jets 6/1 14.3% 24.5%
Oakland Raiders 10/1 9.1% 2.2%
Philadelphia Eagles 9/4 30.8% 22.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers 2/3 60.0% 35.8%
San Diego Chargers 11/4 26.7% 32.3%
San Francisco 49ers 2/7 77.8% 84.8%
Seattle Seahawks 4/11 73.3% 66.4%
St. Louis Rams 3/1 25.0% 35.9%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5/2 28.6% 18.7%
Tennessee Titans 5/1 16.7% 6.1%
Washington Redskins 7/5 41.7% 38.8%