Conference Tournament Odds (3/12/13)
A look at conference tournament odds, our projections for the most likely winners, and a search for value bets. Playable conference tournament picks are 116-73 (61% ATS) all-time. Gain access to all pick information, customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer for only $9.95.
Conference tournaments have been in full swing for a week now. Each tournament gives teams one last chance to improve their resume before Selection Sunday. For some teams this means winning a game or two but for others the only way in is to win the whole thing. For teams in the power conferences it is the mid-major upsets that worry them. So far five number one seeds in minor tournaments have lost, which means teams that may not have been selected for the Big Dance are now taking precious at-large bids. The most atrocious of these bid stealers may be Liberty with a losing record of 15-20.
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (24-10) over Mercer (23-11)
Big South - Liberty (15-20) over Charleston Southern (19-12)
Colonial Athletic - James Madison (20-14) over Northeastern (20-12)
MAAC – Iona (20-13) over Manhattan (14-18)
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (20-15) over FIU (18-14)
The power conferences begin their tournaments this week. Below we look at each tournament, using the new Bracket Simulator, and simulate the tournament starting with the most likely quarterfinals. From there we look for some value in the future odds for each tournament winner.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the conference tournament and compare that to our projected odds that they win the tournament. For example, Miami is listed at 2/1 to win the ACC tournament, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Hurricanes they would need to win the tournament 33.3% (which is 1/(1+2)) of the time. We project Miami to win it all 18.5% of the time meaning there is not value betting them at 2/1 odds.
Note: The percentages listed below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.
When: Thursday (first round); Friday (quarterfinals); Saturday (semifinals); Sunday (championship)
Where: Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, N.C.
Teams currently projected in the tournament: Duke, NC State, UNC, Miami
Teams with work left to do: Virginia, Maryland
Teams with value: Boston College, Florida State, and Maryland
When: Wednesday (first round); Thursday (quarterfinals); Friday (semifinals); Saturday (championship)
Where: Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo.
Teams currently projected in the tournament: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Teams with work left to do: Baylor
|Big 12||Quarterfinals||Semifinals||Championship||Odds||Odds Needed|
Teams with value: West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas
When: Tuesday (first round); Wednesday (second round); Thursday (quarterfinals); Friday (semifinals); Saturday (championship)
Where: Madison Square Garden in New York City
Teams currently projected in the tournament: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Cincinnati, Villanova
Teams with work left to do: Providence
|Big East||Quarterfinals||Semifinals||Championship||Odds||Odds Needed|
Teams with value: Cincinnati
When: Thursday (first round); Friday (quarterfinals); Saturday (semifinals); Sunday (championship)?
Where: United Center in Chicago
Teams currently projected in the tournament: Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Teams with work left to do: Iowa
|Big 10||Quarterfinals||Semifinals||Championship||Odds||Odds Needed|
Teams with value: Minnesota and Iowa
When: Wednesday (first round); Thursday (quarterfinals); Friday (semifinals); Saturday (championship)?
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas
Teams currently projected in the tournament: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, California, Oregon
Teams with work left to do: Arizona State
Teams with value: Stanford
When: Wednesday (first round); Thursday (second round); Friday (quarterfinals); Saturday (semifinals); Sunday (championship)?
Where: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.
Teams currently projected in the tournament: Florida, Missouri
Teams with work left to do: Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas
Teams with value: LSU, Ole Miss, and Kentucky
Playable conference tournament picks are 116-73 (61% ATS) all-time. Gain access to all pick information, customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer for only $9.95.