MLB Picks - 4/17/2014

Last Updated: 4/17/2014 4:00 PM ET

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For baseball wagering tips, please see the MLB Betting Strategy Blog. If you are getting a different line than our projection or you are interested in teaser plays or other exotics that use different lines, we've got you covered. Simply access the Customizable Predictalator or the Play Analyzer, which allows you to run actual, future or totally hypothetical games while being able to input your own against-the-spread and over/under lines. Also, to know who we project to be OUT of each game, check out our injuries information.

Money-line Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot Time (ET) ML Pick Opponent SU% Proj. SU% Needed ML Calc Play More
960 7:05 PM @Was StL 49.9 42.6 135 Calc --> Play More
962 1:08 PM @Det Cle 64.5 60.8 -155 Calc --> Play More
974 7:10 PM @Min Tor 49.4 44.4 125 Calc --> Play More
965 2:05 PM Sea Upset Watch @Tex 51.2 47.6 110 Calc --> Play More
955 6:40 PM Col @SD 49.8 46.5 115 Calc --> Play More
967 7:10 PM NYY @TB 42.9 39.2 155 Calc --> Play More
969 8:10 PM KC @Hou 53.8 51.2 -105 Calc --> Play More
954 3:45 PM @SF LAD 55.5 53.5 -115 Calc --> Play More
958 7:05 PM @Pit Mil 52.7 51.2 -105 Calc --> Play More
952 1:05 PM @Phi Atl 47.7 46.5 115 Calc --> Play More
964 1:10 PM @Min Tor 47.0 46.5 115 Calc --> Play More
971 8:10 PM Bos @CWS 49.4 51.2 -105 Calc --> Play More


Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot Time (ET) Matchup O/U Total Pick Pick% Proj. Pick% Need Odds Calc Play
961 1:08 PM CLE @ DET 7.5 8.7 Over 57.0 48.8 105 Calc --> Play
959 7:05 PM STL @ WAS 7 8.4 Over 58.2 51.2 -105 Calc --> Play
953 3:45 PM LAD @ SF 7 8.0 Over 55.9 51.2 -105 Calc --> Play
951 1:05 PM ATL @ PHI 7.5 8.2 Over 53.6 48.8 105 Calc --> Play
969 8:10 PM KC @ HOU 7.5 8.0 Over 53.0 48.8 105 Calc --> Play
957 7:05 PM MIL @ PIT 7 7.5 Over 53.0 50.0 100 Calc --> Play
965 2:05 PM SEA @ TEX 9 9.7 Over 53.5 51.2 -105 Calc --> Play
956 6:40 PM COL @ SD 7 6.6 Under 52.1 51.2 -105 Calc --> Play
974 7:10 PM TOR @ MIN 8 8.0 Under 50.1 52.4 -110 Calc --> Play
968 7:10 PM NYY @ TB 7 6.7 Under 51.9 52.4 -110 Calc --> Play
963 1:10 PM TOR @ MIN 7.5 8.0 Over 52.5 53.5 -115 Calc --> Play
971 8:10 PM BOS @ CWS 7 7.7 Over 53.9 54.5 -120 Calc --> Play


Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opponent Runs For Runs Against Win% Play
962 1:08 PM @ Det Cle 4.9 3.8 64.5 Play
968 7:10 PM @ TB NYY 3.6 3.1 57.1 Play
954 3:45 PM @ SF LAD 4.2 3.8 55.5 Play
969 8:10 PM KC @ Hou 4.2 3.8 53.8 Play
963 1:10 PM Tor @ Min 4.1 3.9 53.0 Play
958 7:05 PM @ Pit Mil 3.9 3.7 52.7 Play
951 1:05 PM Atl @ Phi 4.2 4.0 52.3 Play
965 2:05 PM Sea Upset Watch @ Tex 4.9 4.8 51.2 Play
972 8:10 PM @ CWS Bos 3.9 3.8 50.6 Play
973 7:10 PM Tor @ Min 4.0 4.0 50.6 Play
956 6:40 PM @ SD Col 3.3 3.3 50.2 Play
959 7:05 PM StL @ Was 4.2 4.2 50.1 Play


Run-Line Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot RL Pick Opp. RL Margin RL% Proj. RL% Need Odds Calc Play
965 SEA @TEX 1.5 0.1 69.6 64.9 -185 Calc --> Play
960 @WAS STL 1.5 0.0 61.9 56.5 -130 Calc --> Play
974 @MIN TOR 1.5 -0.1 60.8 57.4 -135 Calc --> Play
962 @DET CLE -1.5 1.2 45.6 41.7 140 Calc --> Play
955 COL @SD 1.5 0.0 68.0 66.7 -200 Calc --> Play
967 NYY @TB 1.5 -0.6 60.8 59.2 -145 Calc --> Play
954 @SF LAD -1.5 0.4 36.0 35.7 180 Calc --> Play
969 KC @HOU -1.5 0.3 42.2 43.5 130 Calc --> Play
964 @MIN TOR 1.5 -0.2 58.7 60.0 -150 Calc --> Play
952 @PHI ATL 1.5 -0.1 60.2 60.8 -155 Calc --> Play
958 @PIT MIL -1.5 0.2 33.6 35.7 180 Calc --> Play
971 BOS @CWS 1.5 -0.1 66.9 67.7 -210 Calc --> Play

In the picks above, Margin, Runs For, Runs Against and Total Runs are averages from 50,000 games played. The RL% is the percentage of games in which the team picked covers the noted run line. Similarly, the Pick% in the Over/Under table is the percentage of time that the Over or Under pick covers the total. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. With RL and O/U plays assumed to be -110, anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick. With Money-Line plays, any game for which neither team wins enough to justify value is ignored. To alter odds or to evaluate money-line plays, click on “Calc” and adjust the Odds in the Play Value Calculator. Clicking on the "Play" button will allow you to run that game through the Customizable Predictalator. An "Upset Watch" icon will appear next to games where we believe the underdog is more like than not to win outright. Picks will be updated as needed due to injury (up to one hour before game time).

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