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    Bracketology - Predictalated (2/16/17)

    Last Updated: 2/16/2017

    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of winning in that round.

    Predictalated Bracket
    (most likely based on 50,000 tournaments played):

    First Four South West East Midwest Final Four

    South
    Round of 64
    Round of 32
    Sweet 16
    Elite 8
    1
    Baylor
    96.6
    Baylor
    79.4
    Baylor
    49.0
    Baylor
    24.7
    16
    UNC-Central
    3.4
    8
    Minnesota
    47.2
    Miami (FL)
    11.1
    9
    Miami (FL)
    52.8
    5
    Creighton
    82.9
    Creighton
    41.8
    UCLA
    26.3
    12
    Belmont
    17.1
    4
    UCLA
    86.3
    UCLA
    51.6
    13
    Valparaiso
    13.7
    6
    Notre Dame
    55.2
    Notre Dame
    18.3
    Florida
    35.0
    UNC
    21.4
    11
    Michigan
    44.8
    3
    Florida
    94.3
    Florida
    67.7
    14
    Bucknell
    5.7
    7
    Saint Mary's
    78.0
    Saint Mary's
    34.9
    UNC
    35.7
    10
    California
    22.0
    2
    UNC
    94.9
    UNC
    60.5
    15
    Arkansas St.
    5.1
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