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    NFL Line Movement (10/30/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Jaguars and Jets. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    Happy Halloween everybody! Don't get spooked but here are some Halloween themed NFL Logos.

    Now let's talk some line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today.

    Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Broncos, Jaguars and Jets.

    Broncos vs. Patriots


    The New England Patriots have won 13 straight games at home. Tom Brady is 10-6 in his career against Peyton Manning but the Broncos won the most recent matchup 26-16 in last year's AFC Championship game.

    Manning opened as a 4 point favorite against Brady but Denver has settled as a field goal favorite in Foxboro. If Denver remains the betting favorite this will mark just the tenth time in Tom Brady's career that the Patriots have been home underdogs.

    Who will record more Passing Yards Week 9?
    • Peyton Manning (DEN) QB: -20.5
    • Tom Brady (NE) QB: +20.5

    Manning is one of just three quarterbacks averaging more than 300 passing yards per game (Andrew Luck and Drew Brees are the others). Manning is third in the NFL in passing yards per game, Brady ranks 14th throwing for just over 250 yards per game.

    We project Manning to throw for 266.3 yards on average and Brady to throw for 242.3 yards. Not a lot of value, but a slight lean on Manning if you need to get down on this prop.

    Bengals vs. Jaguars


    Cincinnati has the second longest home winning streak in the league at 12-0-1 behindNew England who have won 13 straight in Gillette Stadium. Jacksonville has dropped five straight on the road.

    The Bengals opened as 13.5 points favorites, but the line has moved to Cincy -11. Since 2004, all underdogs of 10 or more points are 200-156-3 (56% ATS).

    Will Blake Bortles throw a Pick 6 in Week 9?
    • Yes: +600
    • No: -1000

    Bortles has thrown a league-high 12 interceptions in 5.5 games including four returned for touchdowns. The Jaguars' rookie threw two pick sixes last week.

    Jets vs. Chiefs


    Michael Vick is making his first start in a year. The Jets are trying to avoid an eight game losing streak. The Chiefs are covering machines beating the spread in six straight games.

    Kansas City opened as a 7.5 points favorite. Over 70 percent of the action has been on the Chiefs to run their against-the-spread record to seven straight games. Kansas City is now favored by 9.5 points.

    Total Rushing Yards Week 9 - Michael Vick
    • Over/Under: 35.5

    Last week on eight carries Vick averaged over eight rushing yards per attempt. In 2013, in four September starts before injuring his hamstring, Vick averaged over eight yards per carry.

    We do not project Vick to maintain an eight yard per carry average but he has enough tread left on the tires to rush for more than 35.5 yards against the Chiefs.

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