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    GameChangers (04/26/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A look at highlights from the most recent game from each NBA Playoff series utilizing Live ScoreCaster.



    Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes.

    It's been an exciting and dramatic start to the NBA Playoffs. Here are some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view Live ScoreCaster chart that tells the story of that game.

    Nets vs. Raptors

    Brooklyn took a 2-1 series lead after surviving a ferocious Toronto comeback. The Nets had a 15 point lead in the fourth; Brooklyn was 99 percent likely to win with less than six minutes remaining.

    Toronto had a chance to tie the game when Patrick Patterson went to the line for a pair of free throws with less than a minute left. Patterson missed both free throws and the Raptors expected win probability dropped to 25 percent. Had both free throws been good, the Raptors expected win probability would have increased to 40 percent.

    Bulls vs. Wizards

    Things escalated quickly late in the fourth when incidental contact between Nene and Jimmy Butler exploded into a scuffle that got Nene ejected. Butler, avoided being kicked out of the game, and hit the go-ahead three pointer with less than a minute remaining.

    Butler's three pointer was the largest play-to-play swing in the game. Chicago's expected win probability increased from 41 percent to 75 percent.

    Rockets vs. Trail Blazers

    Only three teams, the 2004-05 Mavericks being the last, have come back to win a series after losing the first two games of a seven-game series at home. Houston took the first step to becoming the fourth team defeating Portland 121-116 in overtime.

    Houston blew an 11 point lead and an expected win probability of 89 percent in the fourth. In overtime, Portland was a slight favorite to win and pushed their expected win probability to 74 percent with a four-point lead.

    However, the Rockets managed to tie the game and then with 11.9 seconds left, Troy Daniels, a rookie who spent time in the D-League this season and didn't play in the first two games of the series , hit a three pointer. The Rockets became 64 percent likely to win after the biggest shot in the rookie's short career.
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