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    GameChangers (04/25/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A look at highlights from the most recent game from each NBA Playoff series utilizing Live ScoreCaster.



    Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes.

    It's been an exciting and dramatic start to the NBA Playoffs. Here are some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view Live ScoreCaster chart that tells the story of that game.

    Clippers vs. Warriors

    Los Angeles survived Golden State's comeback bid to take a 2-1 series lead. The victory reestablished homecourt advantage for the Clippers, but the win didn't come without some controversy.

    Trailing by as many as 18 points in the second half, Golden State rallied to make it a one-possession game with less than a minute remaining. In the closing seconds Stephen Curry forced a contested three pointer but the attempt came up short. However, Chris Paul made contact on Curry's hip but no call was made. Had a shooting foul been called, Curry, a career 89.6 percent free throw shooter, would have had a 96.9 percent chance of making at least two out of three free throws to tie the game. Curry would have had a 71.9 percent chance of making all three for the win.

    Given the high probability of making at least two out of three free throws, the game could have gone to overtime. In that scenario, the Warriors become 54 percent likely to win.

    Grizzlies vs. Thunder

    Memphis blew a big lead, Oklahoma City got a four-point play, and the Grizzlies won in overtime, business as usual.

    Memphis was 99.8 percent likely to win leading by 17 points with just under eight minutes remaining in the fourth. The Thunder went on an ensuing seven minute, 17-0 run. In a tied game with less than a minute remaining, Oklahoma City had a 49.8 percent chance of winning.

    The Grizzles countered OKC's run to take a four point lead with 30 seconds remaining, Memphis became 84.3 percent likely to win. Then Russell Westbrook converted a four-point play increasing the Thunder's expected win probability from 15.7 percent to 49.9 percent.

    Hawks vs. Pacers

    The eighth seeded Hawks took a 2-1 series lead by controlling the second half, Atlanta was the projected winner for the final 24 minutes.

    The game was sealed when Jeff Teague made an improbable fallaway three pointer to beat the shot clock in the closing minutes. The bucket gave Atlanta an 87-78 lead and made the Hawks 98 percent likely to win. One small problem though, officials missed Teague stepping out of bounds moments before the shot. Had officials made the call or had Teague's unlikely shot missed, the Pacers expected win probability increases from 2 percent to 10 percent.

    With possession, trailing by six instead of nine, the Pacers could have made it a one possession game, in that scenario Indiana's expected win probability increases to 26 percent.


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