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    Manziel Props (08/07/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing
    With Johnny Manziel being investigated for signing autographs, how do Texas A&M’s BCS and conference odds change? Is Manziel still the favorite to win the Heisman? Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv. 



    On Tuesday, an East Coast autograph broker told ESPN that Johnny Manziel was paid $7,500 for signing memorabilia, for the full story click here.
     
    If an investigation by the NCAA finds Manziel guilty of accepting money for signing autographs then he could be ruled ineligible.
     
    Personally, I do not care if he accepted money for signing his name on otherwise worthless merchandise. What I do care about is how this impacts Texas A&M’s BCS and conference odds as well as Manziel’s Heisman odds.
     
    “Considering Texas A&M were among the Top 5 favorites to win the BCS with Manziel playing, there is no doubt that this investigation has forced us to close down those odds, along with win totals, conference odds and pretty much anything that involves the Aggies or Manziel until we have more information. If he does in fact get suspended by the NCAA and is not starting against Alabama, the Aggies will move from getting only 4.5 points to at least two touchdown underdogs in that game. It will also impact the spreads on their whole schedule moving their win total from 9.5 to 7.5 and their BCS Championship Odds from 12-1 to 33-1, if not higher. Ohio State’s Braxton Miller who was at 13-2 odds to win the Heisman will now be the new frontrunner with odds of under 5-1.”
    -Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager, Bovada.lv

    Our Predictions
    (Note: our college football preview will be available next week!)

    With Johnny Manziel (all games):
    Texas A&M is No. 2 in our Power Rankings and wins 9.3 games on average.

    Without Johnny Manziel (any game):
    Texas A&M is No. 46 in our Power Rankings and wins 7.1 games on average

    Manziel is worth 2.2 wins on average to Texas A&M. Coming into the season, the question was if the Aggies had a championship quality defense to match its Heisman led offense. Texas A&M lost six starters from an unimpressive defense last season that gave up 390.2 yards (58th Nationally) and 21.8 points per game (26th Nationally). If Manziel were to be ruled ineligible, then the offensive and defensive units become questionable. 
     
    Johnny Football Prop Bets
    Will Johnny Manziel play in game 1 vs. Rice?       
    • Yes:  2/1
    • No:  1/3 
    Texas A&M was a 28.5 point favorite prior to the Manziel news. If Johnny Football is not eligible to play the Aggies’ spread will dip but they most likely will still be a multi-touchdown favorite.
     
    Will Johnny Manziel win the 2013 Heisman?   
    • Yes:  15/1
    Manziel, after becoming the first freshmen to win the Heisman, was the favorite heading into this season at 17/4. His new odds make him the 10th favorite behind the likes of Braxton Miller, AJ McCarron, and Jadeveon Clowney. 
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