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    GameChangers Week 13 (12/01/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

    Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

    Chargers vs. Ravens

    San Diego trailed Baltimore throughout the game; the Chargers were the projected loser for 59:33 of game time. San Diego was behind 30-20 with 6:13 remaining (two percent chance to win) and 33-27 with 2:22 left (a seven percent chance to win) before Philip Rivers rallied the team.

    San Diego benefited from pass interference in the end zone with less than a minute remaining that gave the Chargers a first down at the Ravens' one-yard line. The penalty increased San Diego's expected win probability from 31 percent to 45 percent.

    Philip Rivers threw a touchdown on the next play and San Diego became 62 percent likely to win its third straight game.

    The Ravens were 11-0 all-time at home against West Coast teams before the loss.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Bengals vs. Buccaneers

    Cincinnati overcame three Andy Dalton interceptions and ten penalties to beat Tampa Bay 14-13; it was the Bengals third straight road victory.

    The Buccaneers were within striking distance in the final minutes and would have been in field goal range but a 21-yard completion was overturned on replay because the Bucs had 12 men on the field.

    Tampa Bay tried to line up and spike the ball to setup the field goal but Bengals Head Coach Marvin Lewis threw a red flag to challenge the previous play.

    The only problem is that coaches cannot challenge plays in the final two minutes. Cincinnati was charged a timeout for throwing the flag. During the timeout replay officials found that the Bucs had 12 men on the field.

    The play was reversed and Tampa Bay ended up turning the ball over on downs.

    Had the completion stood, Bucs' ball on the Bengals 20-yard line, Tampa Bay would have been 95 percent likely to win.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Browns vs. Bills

    The Buffalo Bills used a big second half to easily dispatch the Cleveland Browns 26-10. Buffalo scored two touchdowns in a span of ten seconds in the third quarter including a defensive score (fumble return) that increased the Bills expected win probability from 70 percent to 94 percent.

    The Johnny Manziel era started in Cleveland after Brian Hoyer threw his second interception of the game. Manziel went 3 of 4 for 54 yards and rushed for a 10-yard touchdown. Johnny Football was money but he couldn't rally the Browns to a win.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Jaguars vs. Giants

    The Jacksonville Jaguars trailed the New York Giants 21-0 in the second quarter.

    The Jags had just an eight percent chance of winning.

    The Jaguars scored two defensive touchdowns in the second half and Jacksonville rallied for the largest comeback in team history beating the Giants 25-24.

    Before the game-winning drive, the Jags had less than a 40 percent chance of defeating the Giants.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Packers vs. Patriots

    Aaron Rodgers threw for two touchdowns, Tom Brady said expletives, a few times, and the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots 26-21 in Lambeau.

    On the Patriots final possession, Green Bay sacked Tom Brady forcing New England to attempt a 47-yard field goal that Stephen Gostkowski missed. The missed field goal increased Green Bay's expected win probability from 79 percent to 93 percent.

    Had Gostkowski made the field goal, New England would have been 25 percent likely to rally trailing 26-24.

    The Patriots had another opportunity to get the ball back after missing the field goal. Green Bay faced a third and four from their own 43-yard line, Aaron Rodgers found Randle Cobb for a seven yard gain. The first down ended the game.

    Had New England forced an incompletion on third down, assuming Green Bay punted the ball on fourth down, the Patriots would have been five percent likely to win needing a touchdown to win the game.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

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