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    GameChangers Week 3 (09/28/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

    Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

    The Play

    Colts vs. Titans



    Indianapolis continues to own the AFC South. The Colts have won 14 straight against division opponents. Of course Sunday's win over Tennessee was anything but dominating.

    Andrew Luck will get the credit for throwing two touchdowns in 46 seconds to overcome a double-digit fourth quarter deficit but it was the defense that came up big late.

    Safety Dwight Lowery, picked off Marcus Mariota twice. The second interception came with six minutes to play and Indy trailing 27-21. Lowery returned Mariota's errant pass to the Titans' 11-yard line. The turnover set up Indy's go ahead score.

    Before the pick, the Colts were 21 percent likely to win. The turnover and great field position made the two-time defending AFC South champions 51 percent likely to win.

    Had Mariota's attempt fell incomplete, Tennessee would have been 75 percent likely to win with possession and a six point lead.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    The Decision

    Falcons vs. Cowboys



    Here's a good idea. Get the ball to your best player. Mike Smith probably would have messed this up but Dan Quinn is running the show now in the Dirty South.

    Atlanta trailed Dallas 28-17 at the half before the Falcons unleashed Julio Jones.

    The Pro Bowl receiver had 137 of his 164 yards in the second half including a 45-yard beauty that ended with Jones diving into the end zone for a critical score.



    The play was the biggest swing in expected win probability in the game. Julio's touchdown and the subsequent two-point conversion brought Atlanta within a field goal (trailing 28-25) midway through the third quarter.

    The Falcons' expected win probability increased from 22 percent to 42 percent.

    Had Julio not played in the second half, Dallas would have been 79 percent likely to win. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, the star receiver put on his Superman cape, scored the touchdown and Dallas' win probability dropped 21 percent.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Additional Highlights

    Colin Kaepernick threw four interceptions including two pick-sixes in his first four passes. The Cardinals became 90 percent likely to win leading 14-0 early in the first quarter.

    Richard Sherman picked up 64 yards on a trick play punt return and Tyler Lockett ran back the second half kickoff, the two special team plays increased Seattle's expected win probability by 19 percent as the Seahawks coasted to a 26-0 win over the Bears.

    AJ Green finished with 227 yards and two touchdowns, the last of which was the game winning score with just over two minutes to play. The Bengals only had a 23 percent chance to win before that touchdown drive.

    Cornerback Josh Norman made a spectacular interception in the end zone to seal Carolina's 27-22 win over New Orleans. The Panthers were projected to win for 85 percent of the game despite trailing most of the first half.

    Darren Sproles sparked the Eagles with an 89-yard punt return for a touchdown. The second-longest punt return score in Philly history was also the game's largest swing in expected win probability. The Eagles became 73 percent likely to win, an increase of 16 percent before the punt return.

    Matthew Stafford turned the ball over twice at midfield during the fourth quarter of Lions' 24-12 loss to Denver. The Broncos sack and fumble recovery with ten minutes to play increased the team's expected win probability by 29 percent

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