New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    GameChangers Week 2 (09/21/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

    Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

    The Play

    Packers vs. Seahawks

    Pete Carroll believes the officials blew a critical call in the fourth quarter in Seattle's 27-17 loss to Green Bay Sunday night.

    With less than seven minutes to play, Seattle trailing 24-17, Packers linebacker Jayrone Elliott made an athletic one-handed interception off of Russell Wilson.



    Elliott then immediately fumbled the ball. Both teams scrambled to recover the rock with the Seahawks tackle Justin Britt emerging from the scrum with the ball.

    Officials however ruled that the Packers had possession.

    Green Bay became 97 percent likely to win with the ball in Seattle territory.

    Had the officials ruled that Britt made the recovery, the Seahawks expected win probability increases from 3 percent to 15 percent. Seattle becomes five times as likely to win if the call (and the ball) goes their way.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    The Decision

    Dolphins vs. Jaguars


    In a tightly contested matchup, Jacksonville's game winning field goal was aided by a boneheaded personal foul. On the game's decisive drive Miami's Olivier Vernon was flagged for hitting tight end Clay Harbor after the whistle.



    The 15-yard penalty gave the Jaguars a first down at the Miami 19-yard line with a minute to play and turned what would have been a long field goal into a chip shot. Jacksonville's expected win probability increased 29 percent to 94 percent.

    Had Harbor not committed the penalty, Jacksonville faces a 3rd-and-5 from the Miami 34-yard line. The Jags expected win probability would have been 74 percent.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Additional Highlights

    Johnny Manziel and Travis Benjamin hookup for two long touchdowns, the first of which increased the Browns' expected win probability by 13.3 percent – the largest single play increase in the game.

    Jameis Winston bounced back after a disastrous debut and earned his first career win. The Saints were mistake prone turning the ball over three times lowering the team's expected win probability by a combined 57 percent.

    Ben Roethlisberger threw for 369 yards and three touchdowns, DeAngelo Williams ran for three scores and Pittsburgh was projected to cover the spread for 87 percent of the game.

    The Eagles committed three turnovers including a botched shotgun snap that Dallas recovered to become 99 percent likely to win in the fourth. The Cowboys got the win but they lost Tony Romo with a broken collarbone.

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Uh-oh Romo (09/21/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Week 2 (09/15/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.

    The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.

    NBA Four Quarters
    Sean Pyritz breaks down the first round of the NBA Playoffs thus far and hands out his Sixth Man of the Week award.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com