New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    GameChangers Week 15 (12/21/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

    Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

    The Decision

    Steelers vs. Broncos



    The Pittsburgh overcame a 14-point halftime deficit (20 percent chance to win) to edge Denver 34-27. The Steelers caught a break late in the third quarter when the Broncos returned a punt 71 yards for a touchdown. The big special teams play was overturned because of an illegal substitution.


    Had the Denver offensive linemen not come on to the field the punt return for a touchdown stands and the Broncos take a 34-20 lead. Denver would have become 92 percent likely to win. Instead Denver is assessed a five yard penalty instead of a touchdown and the team's expected win probability becomes 74 percent.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    The Play

    Panthers vs. Giants



    The New York Giants rallied from a 28-point deficit to tie the game 35-35 with less than two minutes to play. Eli Manning found Odell Beckham Jr. for a 14-yard score that put Carolina's perfect season in jeopardy. Panthers' fans might have been worried but Cam Newton never doubted that his team would win.


    The MVP favorite led an eight-play drive that set up the game-winning field goal. Newton picked up a critical first down by scrambling for ten yards that gave the Panthers the ball on the Giants 25-yard line (one play before the winning field goal). Newton's run was the biggest play of the game (+16 percent in expected win probability) for Carolina, making the team 90 percent likely to win.

    Even if the Giants had stopped Newton from picking up a first down, Carolina would have still been 80 percent likely to win. Best case scenario for the Giants, Graham Gano misses the 43-yard field goal and the game goes to overtime. In that scenario the Panthers would be 55 percent likely to stay perfect.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Additional Highlights

    Teddy Bridgewater led Minnesota to a 38-17 blowout of Chicago at home. The Vikings' second year quarterback threw four touchdown passes and ran for another score. Bridgewater was worth 42 percent in net win probability for Minnesota.

    The Falcons ended a six game losing streak with a 23-17 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The game swung on a Blake Bortles interception that he threw on his own one-yard line in the final seconds of the first half. The pick increased Atlanta's expected win probability by 28 percent and led to a field goal that gave the Falcons a 17-3 led.

    Washington won consecutive games for the first time with Kirk Cousins as a starting quarterback. The Redskins rolled up 431 yards and scored five touchdowns against Rex Ryan's defense. The Bills defensive unit cost Buffalo 66 percent in net win probability.

    Brandon Weeden led the Texans to a 16-10 win over the Colts. It was Houston's first win in Indy, ever. The Texans trailed for the majority of the game and were only the projected winner for 26 percent of the contest. The AFC South belongs to Houston, for now.

    The Chiefs rolled to a 34-14 win over the Ravens. Kansas City's defense returned a fumble 73 yards for a touchdown and an interception 90-yards for a score. The two defensive plays were worth +23 percent in net win probability for the Chiefs.

    A Derek Carr pick-six (decreased the Raiders' expected win probability by 18 percent) gave Green Bay an early 14-0 lead. The Packers held on to win 30-20 and clinched a playoff spot for a franchise-record seventh straight time.

    Cincinnati forced four San Francisco turnovers (+34 percent in expected win probability) in a 24-14 win. The Bengals, without starter Andy Dalton, have clinched a fifth straight playoff berth.

    Russell Wilson continued his dominant play with a fifth consecutive game of three or more touchdowns and no interceptions. The Seahawks' quarterback was worth 25 percent in net win probability to the team during Seattle's 30-13 win.

    David Johnson went beast-mode on the Philadelphia Eagles rushing for 187 yards and three touchdowns. The rookie running back was worth 29 percent in net win probability to the Cardinals.

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Week 16 (12/23/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Week 15 (12/16/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.

    The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including Miguel Cabrera's injury, Cody Bellinger's call up and the Seattle Mariners' mess.

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com