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    GameChangers Week 11 (11/23/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

    Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

    The Decision

    Cardinals vs. Bengals

    “Phantom call,” and “kind of ridiculous” is how Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis described a penalty that set up the Cardinals game-winning field goal.

    With six seconds to play, Cincinnati defensive tackle Domata Peko was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. Peko was charged with simulating a snap call to induce a false start by the offense. The penalty moved Arizona 15 yards closer to pay dirt. Chandler Catanzaro then easily converted the 32-yard field goal for the win.

    The penalty and the extra 15 yards increased the Cardinals expected win probability by 12 percent. Arizona was 94 percent likely to win before Catanzaro attempted the kick.

    Had the penalty not been called and Arizona instead was called for a false start, there is a 10-second run-off and the game goes to overtime. In that scenario, the Cardinals expected win probability drops to 60 percent.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    The Play

    Rams vs. Ravens

    Baltimore rallied from a ten point fourth quarter deficit (two percent chance to win) to beat St. Louis 16-13 Sunday. Justin Tucker kicked a 47-yard field goal as time expired to end the Rams' hopes of a playoff run.

    The game-winning kick was set up by a forced fumble of Case Keenum, one of four turnovers for the day by St. Louis. The fumble increased Baltimore's expected win probability by 51 percent to 87.0 percent. Had Keenum not fumbled or had the Rams recovered, St. Louis would have been 64 percent likely to win.

    Some are wondering if Keenum should have even been in the game. Two plays prior to the fumble the Rams' quarterback appeared to suffer a head injury.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Additional Highlights

    Houston gets a third straight win with a 24-17 victory over the New York Jets. T.J. Yates, who was signed on October 28th, threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Yates was worth 29 percent in net win probability for the Texans.

    Matt Ryan threw three interceptions including a pick-six from his own end zone. The turnover for a touchdown increased Indy's expected win probability by 32 percent, the Colts went on to win 24-21.

    Jameis Winston tied a rookie record with five touchdown passes. Winston's offensive explosion led Tampa Bay to a 45-17 win over Philadelphia. The Buccaneers quarterback increased the team's expected win probability by 51 percent.

    It was the day of the backup quarterback. Brock Osweiler completed 20 of 27 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns. Peyton Manning's understudy was worth 38 percent in expected win probability for the Broncos.

    Tony Romo led Dallas to a 24-14 win over the Miami Dolphins. The Cowboys' Pro Bowl quarterback threw two touchdowns (worth 22 percent in expected win probability) to help snap a seven game losing streak.

    The race for the NFC North is heating up. Green Bay ended a three game losing streak with a 30-13 beat down of Minnesota. Aaron Rodgers threw two touchdowns (was worth 33 percent in expected win probability) guiding the Packers to the win.

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    NFL Trends Week 12 (11/25/15)
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