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Thank you for your interest in PredictionMachine.com's fantasy football analysis and projections. Not only is the Predictalator great at projecting entire seasons and aiding with fantasy drafts, it's actually even better at answering who to start and who to sit questions based on simulating each game each week 50,000 times.
Quarterbacks
1. Aaron Rodgers 29.1 FPs (GB vs. NO) – With just 745 passing yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions through three games, Rodgers has not yet had a season worthy of a top ten fantasy football pick. He is still the player we are projecting to score the most points the rest of the season. Expect a shootout against one of the weakest defenses in the league on Sunday against the Saints.
2. Matt Ryan 24.9 FPs (ATL vs. CAR) – I don’t think I will be benching Ryan, the second-leading fantasy point scorer in the league thus far, anytime soon (yes, I did that in two leagues last week) – especially against a team allowing opponents to complete 68.2% of its passes and was the worst pass defense in the league last season.
3. Michael Vick 24.6 FPs (PHI vs. NYG) – Of course, Vick is turning the ball over at a high rate and getting hit, but those categories do not hurt you much on a week to week basis. Vick is third in the league in passing yards and rushed for another 81 yards and a touchdown through three games. The Giants are allowing 9.3 yards-per-pass this season.
Breakout Candidate: Ryan Fitzpatrick 22.2 FPs (BUF vs. NE) – Fitzpatrick has scored the most fantasy points of any fantasy player that is owned in fewer than 50% of Yahoo! fantasy football leagues. We are projecting a shootout between the Bills and Patriots. Fitzpatrick threw for 300+ yards in each game against New England last season and the Patriots just gave up 382 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception last week’s shootout with Baltimore.
Must Avoid: Eli Manning 16.2 FPS (NYG @ PHI) – We love Vick in this game, but not Manning. Philadelphia ranks as having the best pass defense in the league – allowing just 5.7 yards-per-pass and having forced five interceptions.
Running Backs
1. Arian Foster 19.3 FPs (HOU vs. TEN) – First of all, Foster technically ranked second behind Ray Rice on the week’s list, but gets the top spot here because most read/get this after the Thursday game. Foster has 25+ carries in each game this season. That consistency as a workhorse back in fantasy is incredibly valuable.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew 17.9 FPs (JAC vs. CIN) – Speaking of guys that can be counted upon as workhorse backs for their teams, MJD, who struggled a little early in the season after holding out, has 15+ touches in all three games and is coming off of a game in which he carried the ball 28 times for the Jaguars victory. He was needed for the team to keep that game close and will be needed again if he anticipates keeping this game competitive.
3. Fred Jackson 17.1 FPs (BUF vs. NE) – So this will be the most valuable player thus far to show up in our injury watch section… If Jackson plays and starts, as we are expecting him to, he has a great matchup as the Bills’ feature back (CJ Spiller is out) against New England. Last season, in his only game against the Patriots, which the Bills won 38-35, Jackson had 161 total yards and touchdown on just 17 touches. He is a vital part of this offense hanging with New England this week.
Breakout Candidate: Daniel Thomas 12.1 FPs (MIA @ ARI) – Thomas may not be the prettiest or most efficient back, yet he is a fantastic start as a player who hit 20 touches filling in for Reggie Bush last week. It’s so difficult to pass against Arizona (especially with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback) that the run game will be critical for Miami. If Bush does not play, Thomas is a top 15 running back for Week 4.
Must Avoid: Chris Johnson 6.7 FPs (TEN @ HOU) – Johnson has not topped 2.1 yards-per-carry in any of his three games this season and now takes on the best defense in the league on the road. Johnson will be startable able in the future, but is just our 38th best back for the week.
Wide Receiver
1. Calvin Johnson 15.8 FPs (DET vs. MIN) – Megatron (the QB does not really matter, but we do expect Stafford to play in this projection)
2. A.J. Green 13.5 FPs (CIN @ JAC) – A.J. Green ranks second in the NFL receiving 35.4% of his team’s passing targets this season and his 14.8 yards-per-catch rank him third among those in the top 25 in team targets. Green is here to stay.
3. Demaryius Thomas 12.6 FPs (DEN vs. OAK) – Oakland is not expected to win this game, but should be good enough offensively to force Denver to keep throwing – especially with health uncertainty at the running back position. That’s great news for the owners of Thomas (and Peyton Manning) against a Raiders defense that ranks 30th overall (third worst) in our strength-of-schedule-adjusted metrics.
Breakout Candidate: Jeremy Kerley 10.6 FPs (NYJ vs. SF) – I cannot say that I anticipated recommending starting two New York Jets receivers or two receivers playing against the San Francisco 49ers. With Stephen Hill out, Dustin Keller ailing and Shonn Greene struggling, though, Kerley and Santonio Holmes are the Jets’ offense right now. If New York needs to throw again 40+ times (as they may have to in this game), Kerley and Holmes look like strong plays.
Must Avoid: Greg Jennings 6.6 FPs (GB vs. NO) – Despite the projected shootout, it is tough to trust any Packers offensive weapon, especially one with fewer than four fantasy points in all three games this season (and who is dealing with an injury).
Tight End
1. Tony Gonzalez 11.4 FPs (ATL vs. CAR)
2. Jimmy Graham 11.1 FPs (NO @ GB)
3. Vernon Davis 10.5 FPs (SF @ NYJ)
Breakout Candidate: Jermaine Gresham 8.0 FPs (CIN @ JAC)
Must Avoid: Antonio Gates 5.7 FPs (SD @ KC)
Kickers
1. Matt Bryant 11.0 FPs (ATL vs. CAR)
2. Mason Crosby 10.4 FPs (GB vs. NO)
3. Stephen Gostkowski 9.5 FPs (NE @ BUF)
Breakout Candidate: Josh Scobee 8.5 FPs (JAC vs. CIN)
Must Avoid: Robbie Gould 7.1 FPs (CHI W DAL)
Defense
1. Houston Texans 15.9 FPs (HOU vs. TEN)
2. Seattle Seahawks 15.8 FPs (SEA @ STL)
3. Arizona Cardinals 13.8 FPs (ARI vs. MIA)
Breakout Candidate: Dallas Cowboys 9.1 FPS (DAL vs. CHI)
Must Avoid: New York Giants 3.9 FPs (NYG @ PHI)
Injuries to Watch
1. Fred Jackson/CJ Spiller See above. If Jackson plays and starts, he is a top five running back this week. If he does not, Tashard Choice is a top 15 option at the position (with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Stevie Johnson and Scott Chandler moving up even further in the rankings). Though he got light work in practice, it looks like CJ Spiller is out.
2. Reggie Bush Bush is more of a toss-up for the week than Jackson (likely playing) or Spiller (likely out). Owners who have Bush can feel comfortable starting him if he plays. If not, have Daniel Thomas ready to go if possible. Both are top 15 running backs as feature players in this offense.
3. Matthew Stafford We do not see a significant difference in Calvin Johnson’s numbers if Shaun Hill starts over Stafford. BUT, it would impact all other Lions’ fantasy players. Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew (TE), Nate Burleson (WR) and Titus Young (WR) are fringe starts this week as it stands. If Hill starts and plays, none of them (nor Hill) are startable. Mike Leshoure is a fringe start right now (as the 22nd) ranked running back for the week, yet his value would increase to fall firmly in the top 20 if more focus is putting on the running game when/if Stafford misses this game.
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NFL Picks Pages:
September 27: Predictalator Picks
September 30: Predictalator Picks Paul's Analysis
October 1: Predictalator Picks Paul's Analysis
Play Analyzer - View Updated Picks on Current Consensus Lines
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks