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Quarterbacks
1. Cam Newton 29.0 FPs (CAR vs. NO) – Ignore the Week 1 output (just 14.5 fantasy points in a 16-10 loss) as it was both weather related and a totally different situation than we expect in Week 2. The Saints are fresh off a loss in which they allowed Robert Griffin III top put up 29 fantasy points in his debut. We expect something similar in a shootout where both offenses are better than the defenses they will face this week.
2. Tom Brady 28.1 FPs (NE vs. ARI) – Brady may be taking on a top ten pass defense in the Arizona Cardinals, but he has consistently proven an ability to post big numbers against such squads – especially at home. In his 16 2011 games, Brady scored at least 20 fantasy points 14 times and always more than 16 FPs. He is as sure of a thing as there is at the position.
3. Drew Brees 25.2 FPs (NO @ CAR) – Even in the loss, Brees threw for 339 yards and three touchdowns last week against Washington. Carolina gave up more than eight yards-per-pass last season and has a chance to win this. New Orleans won’t stop throwing in this shootout.
Breakout Candidate: Andrew Luck 21.8 FPs (IND vs. MIN) – Luck threw for 309 yards in a loss in a decently strong wind against a good Chicago Bears defense last week. The game this week should be more competitive, but should see similar results with Luck’s numbers as he picks apart the Vikings’ young secondary (and 29th ranked pass defense) at home and inside.
Must Avoid: Matthew Stafford 15.1 FPS (DET @ SF) – Avoiding quarterbacks (or running backs) facing the San Francisco 49ers top ranked defense could be a running theme to this section… especially in San Francisco… and especially when said quarterback threw three interceptions against an inferior team like St. Louis in the previous week (and we’ll get to Calvin Johnson’s health concerns later).
Running Backs
1. Arian Foster 19.3 FPs (HOU @ JAC) – Foster coasted to an easy 20 fantasy points in an easy Week 1 win over Miami. Jacksonville should keep this game a little closer and potentially in doubt late into the second half, which should mean more of Foster and less of Ben Tate on the field.
2. Steven Jackson 18.3 FPs (STL vs. WAS) – This is already where it gets interesting. We loved Steven Jackson headed into the season as an underrated all-around back, but I’m not sure we expected him to rank in our top two by Week 2. And he didn’t even have that great of a Week 1. BUT, Jackson did have 25 touches and is the focal point of an offense that will absolutely need him to get big yards (and probably even score) if it wants to compete this weekend.
3. Reggie Bush 17.0 FPs (MIA vs. OAK) – I did a double-take too. This is a bit of a fluke week with good fantasy backs taking on good defenses and bad backs getting bad defenses. In our numbers, Oakland has the worst defense in the league. Add in the fact that Ryan Tannehill is terrible (still) and Daniel Thomas is hurt (again) and you’ve got our most likely rusher of the week to top 100 yards in Reggie Bush.
Breakout Candidate: BenJarvus Green-Ellis 15.6 FPs (CIN vs. CLE) – The Bengals showed off a revamped offensive line and a new offensive weapon on the ground in its Monday night loss to the Cleveland Browns. Reminding us just how inefficient Cedric Benson was for Cincinnati (he helped remind us that himself as well), Green-Ellis put up five-plus yards-per-carry against one of the best defenses in the league. Had the game been close, he would have been showcased even more. Expect another solid effort on the ground at home against Cleveland.
Must Avoid: Peyton Hillis 5.8 FPs (KC @ BUF) – Those owning Hillis are a couple of years behind. At best, he has to be viewed as a touchdown vulture and the number two option in a backfield with a much more dynamic playmaker. And even on that list, he’s behind Michael Bush, Ben Tate, Jacquizz Rodgers, Beanie Wells and Kendall Hunter in our projections (it does not help that he is going against the best defensive line in football).
Wide Receiver
1. Reggie Wayne 14.0 FPs (IND vs. MIN) – Good thing we only penciled in Megatron as he falls to tenth this week due to a tough matchup against the 49ers and a lingering foot injury. Wayne was targeted 18 times by Andrew Luck in Week 1 (and tallied 9 catches for 135 yards against that solid defense). Need I say more?
2. Percy Harvin 13.8 FPs (MIN @ IND) – No wide receiver had more touches Percy Harvin last year and he’s already among the leaders with 11 after Week 1. Owning Harvin is like owning Ryan Doumit as a catcher in fantasy baseball. He’s not just a wide receiver, but his value is greatest there. Against one of the bottom two defenses in the league, Harvin should put up big numbers through the air and on the ground.
3. Stevie Johnson 13.6 FPs (BUF vs. KC) – This projection is predicated on the injury to Brandon Flowers, the Kansas City Chiefs corner who missed Week 1. If Flowers misses this game, Johnson as the main receiving weapon on a team that loves to air it deep (and just lost its second best receiver), could put up numbers akin to what we saw from Kansas City opponent Julio Jones (108 rec yards, two TDs) in Week 1. If Flowers plays, Johnson would fall from the third WR overall to a WR3 (the third guy to start in a three WR league – or around the 25th best WR player for the week).
Breakout Candidate: Lance Moore 12.0 FPs (NO @ CAR) – With ten targets from Drew Brees in the opener and no sure things behind him on the depth chart, few players moved up further in our weekly and seasonal fantasy wide receiver projections than Lance Moore. As the Saints put up around 30 points in our average outcome, look for a great outing from Moore as well.
Must Avoid: Stephen Hill 6.1 FPs (NYJ @ PIT) – He scored two touchdowns last week in a rout over the Bills, but Hill only had six targets (of Sanchez’s 27 pass attempts) and appears to be a classic boom or bust player who will either get a deep score or two or nothing. I prefer stability/consistency. I also prefer not to play receivers going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Tight End
1. Rob Gronkowski 14.7 FPs (NE vs. ARI)
2. Jimmy Graham 13.5 FPs (NO @ CAR)
3. Aaron Hernandez 10.8 FPs (NE vs. ARI)
Breakout Candidate: Martellus Bennett 8.6 FPs (NYG vs. TB)
Must Avoid: Jared Cook 5.6 FPs (TEN @ SD)
Kickers
1. David Akers 10.8 FPs (SF vs. DET)
2. Stephen Gostkowski 10.2 FPs (NE vs. ARI)
3. Adam Vinatieri 9.8 FPs (IND vs. MIN)
Breakout Candidate: Mike Nugent 9.2 FPs (CIN vs. CLE)
Must Avoid: Jason Hanson 5.1 FPs (DET @ SF)
Defense
1. Houston Texans 14.2 FPs (HOU @ JAC)
2. Cincinnati Bengals 13.9 FPs (CIN vs. CLE)
3. San Francisco 49ers 12.0 FPs (SF vs. DET)
Breakout Candidate: San Diego Chargers 10.4 FPS (SD vs. TEN)
Must Avoid: Denver Broncos 0.2 FPs (DEN @ ATL)
Injuries to Watch
1. Calvin Johnson Megatron > Madden Curse… Right? We will certainly be surprised if Calvin Johnson does not play, but this is about as big of a non-QB injury as there could be to monitor right now. If Johnson misses the game Sunday, no one on the Lions offense is worth starting (except maybe Titus Young as a WR3 in a deep league).
2. Ryan Mathews Mathews has been cleared for contact and has started practicing this week, which is a little early than expected as he recovers from a preseason broken clavicle. When he does get back on the field, Mathews should be a top six running back so hold on to him if you have him. If he is a go on gameday, Mathews has a great matchup with the Titans. If he doesn’t, look elsewhere. The touches are spread out too much otherwise.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers RBs
Isaac Redman and Rashard Mendenhall could be great fantasy plays as feature backs who are factors in the run and pass game for an effective offense (whose defense gets them the ball at a well above-average rate). Jonathan Dwyer and Chris Rainey show quite a bit of promise as game-breaking backs (especially Dwyer who could easily handle 20 touches). Who is going to play the position for the Steelers? Good question. Every one of those guys is a question mark right now. It’s not a great matchup with the Jets this week, but it is smart to pick up whoever it looks like will emerge from this mess as the feature back for Week 3 and beyond. There will be value there. I promise.
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NFL Picks Pages:
September 13: Predictalator Picks
September 16: Predictalator Picks Paul's Analysis
September 17: Predictalator Picks Paul's Analysis
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks