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    Pac-12 (03/11/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    When: March 12-15
     
    Where: Las Vegas, NV
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Arizona (40.6%)
     
    The Wildcats are in good shape to earn a No. 1 seed in this year’s tournament but a Pac-12 title would all but guarantee a top seed for Arizona. If you are a Wildcat fan you have to like Arizona’s chances of winning their first conference tournament since 2002.
     
    And if they lose: UCLA (12.5%)
     
    The Bruins are a deep and talented team; a Pac-12 title could mean a more favorable path to the Final Four. Of course, UCLA will have to avoid a number of stumbling blocks along the way in a conference tournament that could feature as many as six NCAA Tournament participants.
     
    Bid Thief:
     
    California: The Golden Bears are part of the “First Four Out” in the most recent Bracketology. By our Power Rankings Cal has a case for an at-large bid but they will need at least one Pac-12 Tournament win to feel secure.
     
    Odds to win the Pac-12 (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    1 Arizona 100.0 74.1 57.5 40.6
    2 UCLA 100.0 53.4 30.4 12.5
    3 Arizona St. 100.0 57.2 26.3 10.4
    7 Oregon 68.2 36.2 21.4 9.4
    6 Stanford 77.8 37.9 17.0 7.1
    4 California 100.0 55.8 17.0 7.0
    8 Utah 66.8 19.8 11.4 6.0
    5 Colorado 66.9 33.6 9.5 3.9
    9 Washington 33.3 6.2 3.1 1.2
    10 Oregon St. 31.8 10.4 3.6 1.1
    12 USC 33.1 10.7 1.6 0.4
    11 Washington St. 22.3 5.0 1.5 0.4

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