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    Conference Tourney Odds (03/11/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    Atlantic 10
     
    When: March 12-16
     
    Where: Brooklyn, NY
     
    The automatic bid goes to: VCU (30.0%)
     
    The Rams are the best team in the conference and enter the tournament on a four game winning streak that includes defeating St. Louis. It looks like the A-10 title game will be the rubber match between the Billikens and the Rams.
     
    Odds to win the A-10 (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

    Seed Team Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    2 VCU 100.0 75.9 48.0 30.0
    1 St. Louis 100.0 67.1 38.5 20.3
    4 St. Joe's 100.0 57.5 28.0 12.3
    3 George Wash. 100.0 55.3 24.7 11.6
    6 UMass 64.5 32.1 14.2 7.8
    5 Dayton 66.2 32.5 15.5 7.0
    9 St. Bonaventure 57.1 21.1 9.8 3.6
    7 Richmond 58.1 16.1 6.9 2.7
    8 La Salle 42.9 11.9 4.7 1.6
    11 Rhode Island 35.5 12.7 3.6 1.1
    10 Duquesne 41.9 8.1 2.9 1.1
    12 George Mason 20.3 6.1 2.2 0.5
    13 Fordham 13.5 4.0 1.5 0.4
     
    Big Sky
     
    When: March 13-15
     
    Where: Ogden, UT
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Weber State (33.7%)
     
    The Wildcats, the No. 1 seed in the Big Sky Tournament, are playing host to this year’s conference tournament. Weber State should be the favorite with home court advantage and re-seeding in the semifinals.
     
    Odds to win the Big Sky (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

    Seed Team Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    1 Weber St. 100.0 56.8 33.7
    4 Montana 55.5 25.2 13.7
    6 N. Colorado 52.3 27.0 12.0
    2 North Dakota 52.3 26.2 11.6
    3 N. Arizona 47.7 25.5 11.2
    7 Sacramento St. 47.8 21.3 9.6
    5 Portland St. 44.5 18.1 8.2
     
    Big West
     
    When: March 13-15
     
    Where: Anaheim, CA
     
    The automatic bid goes to: UC Irvine (30.4%)
     
    The tournament championship will come down to UC Irvine and UC Santa-Barbara and we give a slight edge to Irvine. If the Anteaters win the Big Sky title it would be UC Irvine’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament.
     
    Odds to win the Big West (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

    Seed Team Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    1 UC Irvine 77.0 51.2 30.4
    2 UC Santa Barbara 73.0 47.8 27.4
    3 Long Beach St. 64.5 29.3 13.6
    4 Hawaii 62.1 27.3 13.5
    5 CS-Northridge 38.0 12.8 4.6
    6 CS-Fullerton 35.5 11.8 3.8
    7 Cal Poly 27.0 11.2 3.8
    8 UC Riverside 23.1 8.8 2.9
     
    Mountain West
     
    When: March 12-15
     
    Where: Las Vegas, NV
     
    The automatic bid goes to: San Diego State (33.1%)
     
    The Aztecs are the best team in the conference and have already proven that they are a dangerous NCAA Tournament team with a marquee win at Kansas. A Mountain West Tournament title can only help the Aztecs’ seeding.
     
    Odds to win the Mt. West (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

    Seed Team Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    1 San Diego St.  74.6  51.6  33.1
    2 New Mexico  69.5  45.9  26.1
    4 UNLV  57.5  23.3  11.1
    6 Boise State  49.5  22.0  8.6
    5 Wyoming  42.5  14.1  5.0
    3 Nevada  39.6  13.3  4.4
    7 Fresno State  21.5  9.9  3.5
    8 Utah State  13.3  5.7  2.5
    9 Colorado State  12.2  5.3  2.3
    11 San Jose State  10.9  4.9  1.9
    10 Air Force  9.1  4.1  1.5
     
    Sun Belt
     
    When: March 13-16
     
    Where: New Orleans, LA
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Georgia State (48.9%)
     
    The only way a Sun Belt team is going dancing is to win the tournament championship. Georgia State is in the best position to earn the conference’s automatic bid.
     
    Odds to win the Sun Belt (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

    Seed Team Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    1 Georgia State 100.0 70.3 48.9
    3 UL-Lafayette 62.3 38.3 17.0
    2 W. Kentucky 100.0 44.1 14.5
    4 Arkansas St. 61.0 20.8 10.9
    6 UT-Arlington 22.0 10.3 3.3
    7 UL-Monroe 15.8 7.4 2.3
    8 Troy 19.9 4.6 1.6
    5 Arkansas-Little Rock 19.1 4.4 1.5
     
    Southland
     
    When: March 12-15
     
    Where: Katy, Texas
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Stephen F. Austin (52.2%)
     
    Stephen F. Austin enters Southland Tournament play on a 26 game winning streak. After sweeping the conference during the regular season, it would be surprising if the Lumberjacks didn’t win the conference’s automatic bid.
     
    Odds to win the Southland (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

    Seed Team Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    1 Stephen F. Austin 100.0 74.0 52.2
    2 Texas A&M-CC 100.0 45.8 14.0
    4 Northwestern St. 68.8 21.5 12.1
    3 Sam Houston St. 45.9 24.5 9.0
    6 Oral Roberts 38.4 21.1 8.0
    7 McNeese State 15.8 8.7 3.3
    5 Nicholls State 16.6 2.4 0.7
    8 SELA 14.7 2.2 0.7
     
    WAC
     
    When: March 13-15
     
    Where: Las Vegas, NV
     
    The automatic bid goes to: New Mexico State (45.8%)
     
    Utah Valley won the regular season but New Mexico State is by far the better team. The Aggies are going dancing.
     
    Odds to win the WAC (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    2 New Mexico St. 76.3 59.7 45.8
    1 Utah Valley 63.8 37.2 13.3
    6 CS-Bakersfield 60.5 18.7 10.4
    5 Idaho 51.4 25.3 8.9
    7 Seattle 23.7 13.1 7.3
    4 UMKC 48.7 22.1 6.4
    3 Chicago St. 39.6 8.6 4.1
    8 UT-Pan Am 36.2 15.5 3.8

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