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    4-Team Playoff Odds (05/28/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Will Florida State make the new four-team College Football Playoff? Plus, odds for the other power conference programs to reach the postseason. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    The 2014-15 season marks the beginning of a new era in college football. For the first time a four-team playoff will decide the National Champion. With this new format comes a new betting opportunity.

    No longer are you limited to betting your favorite team to win the championship, now you can bet whether a team will make the four-team playoff.

    Florida State, the defending National Champion, is the favorite to make the four-team playoff. The Seminoles are -350, which implies that the Heisman led squad has a 78 percent chance of making the postseason.

    Florida State will undoubtedly be ranked number one in most preseason polls. However, that does not necessarily mean the Seminoles are a lock to make the postseason. Using our College Football Power Rankings as a guide, in the last three years, of the fifteen teams ranked in the top five before the season began, only seven finished in the top five at the end of the year. It gets worse when you start using other rankings like the AP Top 25, only five of the fifteen teams ranked in the top five were in both the preseason and final poll.

    Based on the playoffs odds, the most likely four-team playoff would consist of Florida State vs. Alabama and Oregon vs. Ohio State.

    Odds to make and miss the four-team playoff

    Team Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Miss Playoffs
    Florida State -350 225
    Oregon -110 -130
    Ohio State -105 -135
    Alabama 125 -165
    Oklahoma 175 -260
    Auburn 175 -260
    Michigan State 225 -350
    LSU 230 -360
    UCLA 240 -380

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