PredictionMachine.com’s Manager of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, reviews the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.
Three Up
Florida Gators
2012 Record: Straight-Up 2-0, Against-the-Spread 1-1
Previous Game: 20-17 win in Texas A&M’s SEC debut
The Gators had never won a game when trailing at halftime under head coach Will Muschamp, Florida also had the sixth most penalties in all of FBS a year ago, and Texas A&M had never punted the ball in the first half of Saturday’s game. All of those trends ended when a disciplined Gator’s defense, 6th best according to our Power Rankings, shut down an explosive A&M offense (punts on all six second-half drives) while committing only three penalties (averaged eight a game last year).
Mike Gillislee carried Florida offensively rushing for 83 yards and two touchdowns. Gillislee has been impressive this season averaging 6.1 yards per carry and two touchdowns in each game. Gator Nation heads to Knoxville next week as Florida takes on the Volunteers.
Trends
Florida is 5-1 straight-up in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee on the road
Tennessee is 2-4 against-the-spread in its last 6 games at home
Kansas State Wildcats
2012 Record: Straight-Up 2-0, Against-the-Spread 1-0
Previous Game: 52-13 domination of the Miami Hurricanes
It was over early when K-State drove 58 yards on their first drive and Collin Klein rushed for a 1-yard touchdown. Klein poured in three more scores while totaling 274 all-purpose yards. The Wildcats converted 72.7% of their third-down attempts (8 of 11), while the defense stifled electrifying frosh running back Duke Johnson and the rest of the Hurricanes (1.4 yards per rushing attempt).
K-State was 8-1 last season in games decided by one possession. KSU has decided not to test their luck in close contests by outscoring their opponents 103 to 22 in their first two games. Next up, North Texas.
Trends
North Texas is 1-7 straight-up in its last 8 games on the road
KSU is 6-3 against-the-spread in its last 9 games in Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Cincinnati Bearcats
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-0, Against-the-Spread 1-0
Previous Game: 34-10 victory over Pittsburgh
If you tuned into the contest on Thursday night you probably heard the announcers say the word munchie repeatedly. You might have thought to yourself, does someone playing have the munchies? Or maybe you thought of the movie Munchie, Jennifer Love Hewitt’s film debut. But what you were really hearing was the name of Cincinnati’s dual threat quarterback, Munchie Legaux, who starred in the Bearcat’s victory over Pittsburgh. Munchie threw for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing for117 yards.
Cincinnati scored on their first offensive play of the season when George Winn rushed 58 yards for a touchdown. The Bearcats look to score early and often next week in a tune up game against Delaware State. We will find out what Cincinnati is really made of when they face #15 Virginia Tech at home September 29th.
Trends
Delaware State is 1-7 straight-up in its last 8 games
The total has gone under in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games at home
Three Down
Arkansas Razorbacks
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-1, Against-the-Spread 0-1
Previous Game: 34-31 loss to Louisiana-Monroe
The “giant sucking sound” you hear is the gasp from Arkansas fans has their hopes for an SEC title and a BCS Championship went out the window Saturday night. What had happened was…an All-Sun Belt quarterback, Kolton Browning, totaled 481 yards of offense and four touchdowns. The last score coming on a nifty scramble in overtime that gave the Warhawks the victory.
Louisiana-Monroe was 50th last season, with 255 yards, among FBS programs in passing yards per game. The 412 yards surrendered by Arkansas were the most allowed in the last two years. There is no time to recover for the Razorbacks as they host #1 Alabama next week.
Trends
The total has gone over in 4 of Alabama’s last 6 games when playing Arkansas
Arkansas has won its last 12 home games; last loss was to Alabama in 2010
Wisconsin Badgers
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-1, Against-the-Spread 0-1
Previous Game: 10-7 loss at Oregon State
The Badgers had “High Hopes” coming into this season with Heisman finalist Montee Ball returning to Madison for his senior season. Ball had rushed for over 100 yards in 9 out of his last 10 games and had an impressive scoring streak of 21 straight games. Oregon State snapped those streaks and the hopes of Badger fans when they limited Ball to 61 yards and no touchdowns.
With 8:45 left in the 2nd quarter and only down three, many Wisconsin fans would have thought they were still favored to win. However, the Live ScoreCaster began favoring the Beavers to win outright 53.5% of the time. Wisconsin gets a chance to rebound next week against Utah State.
Trends
Utah State is 1-3-1 against-the-spread in its last 5 games on the road
Wisconsin is 1-6 against-the-spread in its last 7 games
Nebraska Cornhuskers
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-1, Against-the-Spread 1-1
Previous Game: 36-30 loss at UCLA
Taylor Martinez may have the worst throwing motion in all of college football. It certainly didn’t help him in the second half when he went 4 of 14 with an interception. But what really killed the Cornhuskers was their vaunted Blackshirts who allowed 653 total yards of offense.
UCLA redshirt freshmen, Brent Hundley, had his way with Nebraska Saturday night throwing for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Cornhuskers look to make the appropriate adjustments before facing Arkansas State next week.
Trends
The total has gone over in 4 of Arkansas State’s last 5 games
Nebraska is 3-6 against-the-spread in its last 9 games at home